For years, American football was pretty much strictly an American affair. Few people outside the US were familiar with contemporary Super Bowl champions or NFL drafts. In the UK, there has always been another brand of football, which is widely popular across the globe. However, the craze for the NFL has now crossed the Atlantic and is making its mark there as well.
Given its dynamic character, American football is a great choice for sports betting. Common markets and some basic advice will be covered in this piece to make sure you have all you need to know about American football betting before laying your first bet.
Here’s a look at some of the common American football betting markets to begin with.
Moneyline
The first bet we will go over is the simplest American football bet you can imagine—the moneyline bet. It is essentially a bet on who will win the match, as it simply involves staking money on the team likely to win the game. There are no other variables involved here.
Example:
Here is a bet365 snapshot of the Commanders-Eagles game’s moneyline odds. The Commanders are priced 3.35 here, as you can see; their opponent is at 1.34. Washington are the underdogs entering this contest with lengthier odds; the shorter ones make the Eagles the favourites.
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- Commanders at 3.35: This means that if you bet £100 on the Commanders to win, you would win £335 (your original £100 back plus £235 in profit) if they win the game.
- Eagles at 1.34: This means that if you bet £100 on the Eagles to win, you would win £134 (your original £100 back plus £34 in profit) if they win the game.
Points Spread
Based on their projected performance, the points spread market in NFL betting assigns either an advantage or a deficit to every team. Bookmakers compute the points range by considering various factors like team form, venue and injuries.
In this system, the favoured team starts with a points deficit, meaning they need to win by a larger margin to win the bet. On the other hand, the underdog starts with a points advantage, meaning they can lose by a smaller margin and still be considered a winning bet.
Example:
We have sourced this screenshot from William Hill. Here, the bookie has assigned a +6 range on a Commanders’ victory and a -6 range on an Eagles’ win.
- Washington Commanders +6: The Commanders hold a 6-point edge and are hence the underdogs in this game. The Commanders must either win the match or lose the match by five points or less to win this bet. Should the Commanders lose by precisely six points, the bet is a “push”, returning your initial stake. There will be no loss or profit, in this case.
- Philadelphia Eagles -6: The minus sign implies that the Eagles have been handed a 6-point deficit in this tie. That means, they are the favourites here and a simple win won’t guarantee a winning return. The Eagles must win by at least seven points for the wager to pay out. Should the Eagles’ victory margin be exactly six, you will be reimbursed but there will be no profit available.
Totals (Over/Under)
The total points market of NFL betting is simple. Based on their judgement of how the game is expected to go, you simply have to decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than the total points threshold set by the bookmaker.
Example:
The screenshot above shows the totals market bet365 created for the Commanders-Eagles match. You could gamble either staying below 47.5 points or the overall score to surpass 47.5 points.
The oddsmakers have looked at numerous factors such as team performance, offensive and defensive capability, past data, etc. to arrive at this figure. It suggests they expect a moderately high-scoring game.
The “.5” serves a special purpose. It stops a push or tie in this bet. Football has no half point, hence the final score will always be either over or under this figure. That means, there is no chance of getting your money back without profits. If you lose the wager, you lose it altogether. You will not be reimbursed under any circumstances, unless the match is abandoned.
Player and Team Props
Apart from the usual NFL betting choices already discussed, you can investigate prop bets for every game. Though they cover several possibilities like a certain player to score a touchdown anytime, the first team to score a touchdown, or the first team to commit a turnover, these wagers usually have little bearing on the final result of the match.
Example:
In this market from Pinnacle, the bookmaker is offering 2.580 odds for Eagles wide receiver AJ Brown to score a touchdown anytime against the Commanders. You might also bet against Brown scoring a touchdown; in such an instance, should Brown fail to score a touchdown in the game, your wager will pay off.
Futures
Futures bets are end-of-season wagers that you can place before the season begins or at any point during the season as it unfolds. However, the markets get narrower as the season progresses and the odds diminish. For the best returns, you should place this bet before or early in the season.
The odds get shorter as the season progresses, but the risk factor gets significantly less as well. For example, you would have gotten much longer odds for betting on the Commanders making the Super Bowl before the season than you would now. But, it would have been much difficult to predict that the Commanders would go on such an amazing run.
Example:
This screenshot has been taken from Pinnacle and it shows the odds for the potential 2024-25 Super Bowl champions. There are only four teams on the list since they are the last four standing. The Eagles are the favourites with odds of 2.880, and the Chiefs are right behind them with odds of 3.030. The Bills come third at 3.490, while the Commanders remain the outliers at 7.550.
This is a futures bet since you are predicting a certain outcome at the end of season. You can also predict player futures, like top touchdown scorer of the season, highest passing yards scorer of the season.
How to Bet on American Football: Special Tips
With these markets in mind, here are a few of our top tips for betting on American football.
Don’t Let Media Coverage Manipulate Your Picks
The media’s main job is to increase viewership and create buzz about NFL events. The buzz generated by outlets attempting to develop a narrative about a forthcoming game should not fool you. A good NFL bettor is someone who can use the data at hand to cut through media hype and make smart bets.
Stats and History Matters
When betting on the NFL, pay attention to statistics and past performance. For evaluating individual and team match-ups, sites like Pro Football Reference provide a treasure of data. NFL teams and players are often consistent in their performance; the better sides statistically are more likely to be in contention for the top reward come season’s end.
Don’t Be Afraid to Go Against the Public
One strategy used by some NFL bettors is to “fade the public”. This entails betting against the team drawing the most general public bets. When public opinion is strongly biased towards one side, bookies sometimes change the betting lines to provide value for those betting on the other side.
Bookmakers use line adjustments to discourage excessive betting on one side. By making the popular pick less attractive, they aim to balance their books. This creates an advantage for sophisticated bettors who understand line movement and strategically place their bets when the odds are most advantageous.
Bet Only Where There Is Value
The key to successful American football betting is simple: identifying real betting value. Without that, you will always lose money whether you’re betting on the NFL or NCAA. Do your own research and find out which matches and markets have the best betting potential.
Don’t Hesitate to Learn
Confusing knowledge of the game itself with an awareness of how to wager on it is a typical error among rookie American football bettors. Don’t get us wrong; knowing the NFL or NCAA and the nuances of American football will provide a great basis. Still, it’s only the beginning of the process towards acquiring the mindset required to see value bets in American football. Two quite separate skills are knowing the game and knowing how to wager on it.
While it’s true that a deep understanding of how the NFL or NCAA operates and how the game is played puts you in a strong position, true expertise in American football betting comes with time and experience. You will learn to apply your football expertise to NFL and NCAA betting markets and hone your strategy through experience.
