Rugby union is the elder statesman of the rugby codes, tracing its origins back to the early 19th century. With over six million registered players and 180,000 clubs worldwide, it’s a sport of immense global popularity.
The sport has become an increasingly popular playground for betting enthusiasts. With its dynamic gameplay and high-scoring nature, punters from all over the world are inclined towards betting on rugby union.
Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or new to the world of rugby, this article will help you understand a range of strategies to make informed wagers on rugby union. Read on as we explore a variety of betting markets that will transform you from a casual fan into a savvy bettor.
Outright Bets
This is the type of bet where you predict the overall winner of a tournament or competition.
Outright bets offer the potential for substantial returns, especially if you identify a long-shot that goes on to claim victory. However, they also carry a higher risk as there are numerous variables that can impact the outcome of a tournament.
For instance, you might bet on New Zealand to win the Rugby Championship 2024. As the attached screenshot indicates, the Kiwis are second favourite to win the tournament at 2.37. These are healthy odds, however they require the All Blacks to win four or five games in order to pay.
It’s essential to distinguish between outright bets and match winner bets. While both involve predicting a winner, the time frame and complexity differ significantly.
Match Winner Bets
The most straightforward rugby bet is predicting the outright winner of a match. This is the classic two-option market: team A or team B.
For example, in a match between New Zealand and Argentina, you would choose to back either New Zealand or Argentina to win the game. As the attached screenshot shows, the odds for this market can often be quite skewed depending on the match-up between the two teams.
This can be a good thing or a bad thing depending on your betting strategy. On the one hand, it means a conservative wager can be paid that has a high chance of paying (for example, New Zealand to win at 1.10). On the other hand, it can be challenging to achieve returns of any measure without taking big risks.
While seemingly simple, match winner bets require careful consideration of factors such as team form, head-to-head records, key player availability, and home advantage.
Half-Time Bets
Half-time betting allows you to focus on the action within the first or second half of a rugby match.
- Half-Time Result: Predicting the winner at halftime is a popular option. This market offers three possible outcomes: Team A win, Team B win, or draw. By analysing team performance in the first half, you can make informed predictions.
- Highest Scoring Half: This bet involves predicting whether the first or second half will produce more points. Factors such as team tactics, player substitutions, and fatigue can influence which half is more likely to be higher scoring.
- First Half Winning Margin: Similar to the full-time winning margin bet, this market focuses on the point difference at halftime. By accurately predicting the first half dominance of a team, you can increase your chances of success.
- First Half Points Total: This bet focuses on the total number of points scored in the first half. Like the full-time total points bet, you predict whether the combined score will be over or under a specified number.
Handicap Bets
Handicap betting is a popular option for rugby matches where there’s a clear disparity between the two teams. By applying a virtual advantage or disadvantage to one team, bookmakers create a more balanced betting environment.
For instance, if New Zealand is playing Argentina, New Zealand would likely be given a handicap of -15 points. This means New Zealand must win by 16 points or more for your bet to be successful. So, if you bet on Argentina with a +15 handicap, they can win the match, lose by less than 15 points, or even draw to win the bet.
Handicap betting offers a way to find value, even in seemingly one-sided matches. By carefully analysing team performance, head-to-head records, and recent form, you can identify potential opportunities where the handicap market offers favorable odds.
Bookmakers often provide various handicap options, allowing you to select the spread that best suits your assessment of the match. Handicap betting can be also applied to individual halves or quarters, offering further betting possibilities.
Try Scorer Bets
Predicting the try scorer in a rugby match adds an extra layer of excitement to betting. There are two primary types of try scorer bets.
First Try Scorer
As the name suggests, this bet involves predicting which player will cross the try line first. Wingers are often favoured due to their attacking prowess and position on the field. However, with odds generally around 7.00, it’s essential to consider other factors like recent form, team tactics, and opposition strengths.
Anytime Try Scorer
Anytime try scorer is a more inclusive bet which allows you to wager on any player to touch down at any point during the match. While wingers remain popular choices, this market also offers opportunities to bet on forwards who possess strong ball-carrying abilities or are likely to benefit from attacking line-outs or scrums.
Team Bets
Team bets shift the focus from individual players to the overall performance of a team. These wagers often center around key match outcomes and events.
Common team bets include:
- First Team to Score a Try: Predicting which team will cross the try line first.
- Winning Margin: Estimating the difference in points between the two teams.
- Will a Team Score a Try in the Match: Betting on whether a specific team will manage to score at least one try.
- Team to Score the Last Try: Predicting which team will score the final try of the match.
- Winning Team: The traditional bet on which team will emerge victorious.
Team bets can be a profitable avenue for you, but it’s essential to consider specific scenarios where these bets offer the best value. If you believe a team will dominate across multiple facets of the game, backing them to win or cover a handicap can be a profitable strategy.
Combining team bets with player bets can create a balanced approach to managing risk and maximising potential returns. However, in tight contested matches, focusing on individual player performances or other bet types might offer better value.
Winning Margin Bets
The winning margin bet focuses on the exact difference in points between the two teams at the end of the match. For instance, if you believe Team A will comfortably defeat Team B, you might bet on a winning margin of 16-20 points. This means Team A must win by between 16 and 20 points for your bet to be successful.
Winning margin betting requires a deeper understanding of the teams involved, their recent form, and potential match scenarios.
It’s important to consider factors like head-to-head history, key player absences, and home advantage when making your prediction. While winning margin bets can offer attractive odds, they also carry a higher risk compared to simply betting on the match winner.
Accurate predictions of point differentials are challenging, and unexpected factors can significantly impact the outcome.
Totals Bets
A popular betting market in rugby is the total points scored. This involves predicting whether the combined points total of both teams will be over or under a specific number set by the bookmaker.
For instance, if the total points line for a match is set at 50.5, betting over means you believe the combined score of both teams will exceed 50 points. Conversely, betting under means you expect the combined score to be 50 points or lower.
Totals bets offer a different perspective on the match, focusing on the overall scoring output rather than the outcome of the game itself.
Live-Betting
Live betting, also known as in-play betting, adds an extra layer of excitement to rugby matches. It allows you to place wagers on various markets while the game is in progress.
Just like traditional pre-match betting, you can bet on handicaps or match winners, but with a crucial difference: the odds are constantly fluctuating based on the unfolding action. For example, if a team scores a try, their odds to win the match will shorten, while the opponent’s odds will lengthen.
Live betting offers the opportunity to capitalise on momentum shifts, injuries, or unexpected game developments. However, it also requires quick decision-making and a solid understanding of the sport.
Rugby is a game of momentum, and live betting allows you to capitalise on these shifts. Pay close attention to possession, territory, and penalties as they can significantly impact the odds. A team dominating possession and territory is more likely to score points, making them a strong betting option.
Many bookmakers offer a variety of in-play markets beyond the traditional match winner and handicap. Explore options like:
- Next Score: Predict whether the next score will be a try, penalty, or drop goal.
- Total Points in the Half: Bet on the combined points scored in the next half of the match.
- Specific Player Markets: Wager on individual player performances, such as the next try scorer or number of tackles.
Rugby betting offers a diverse range of markets, catering to different betting preferences and risk appetites. From predicting outright winners to wagering on specific game events, there’s an opportunity for everyone.
It’s essential to understand the nuances of different bet types, analyse team performance, and consider factors like player injuries, home advantage, and weather conditions, if you truly wish to maximise your chances of success.
Remember, successful betting requires a balance of research, discipline, and a dash of intuition. So before you jump into rugby union betting, make sure you do your due diligence.
