Rugby league is wildly popular in Northern England and has been gaining momentum in other parts of the country. Worldwide, this form of rugby is not as popular as its cousin, rugby union, but once you get to know it, rugby league is a fascinating sport with its unique set of charms.
From a punter’s perspective, rugby league is a sport brimming with betting potential. There are a lot of ways to find value in the available markets. In this rugby league betting guide, we will explore the common markets and discuss some tips that can maximise our chance of winning.
Let’s begin with the markets.
Match Result
As always, we will start with the match result or moneyline bet. If anyone chooses to place this bet, they need to successfully predict which team will win a certain match. If their prediction comes through, they win.
Example:
We will use this screenshot from William Hill to explain how match result bets work in rugby league. Here, William Hill offers odds of 1.20 for Hull Kingston Rovers to beat the Salford Red Devils in their Super League encounter. The odds for a Salford win is at 4.33 and the bookmaker values a draw at 4.33.
Since draws are incredibly rare in rugby, bookies always offer high prices for one. In this particular case, the bettor would get a 23x return for successfully predicting a draw. The low odds for Hull KR shows that they are the favourites to win in this match. On the contrary, Salford are underdogs.
- Hull KR at 1.34: This means a successful £10 bet on Hull KR would return £13.40 (your £10 stake + £3.40 profit).
- Salford Red Devils at 4.33: This means a successful £10 bet on Salford would return £43.30 (your £10 stake + £33.30 profit).
The odds shown in the screenshot is for the match result within the 80th minute. If the match goes to extra time after a stalemate in regulation time, only punters who bet on a draw will be eligible for claiming their winnings. There are also markets for total match results, which consider the final outcome, including extra time.
Handicaps
Rugby league punters view handicap bets or spread bets as a safer and more lucrative alternative to match result bets. In many cases, match result bets are unattractive because the favourite team has very short odds. Betting on the winner doesn’t produce a significant profit.
On the flip side, betting on the underdog is also riskier. Since the likelihood of an underdog win is slim, the chances are high that you will lose your money. Handicap bets present a great solution to this dilemma.
Bookmakers assign a positive handicap to the underdog and a negative handicap to the favourite team. The odds are usually identical or close for both the positive and negative handicap. That means, you can back the favourite or the underdog at almost the same odds.
The handicap value is fixed by the bookies, but there is a special form of handicap betting that allows punters to choose from several handicap values. This is called line betting. You can choose narrower or wider handicaps, depending on your risk appetite.
Example:
Here are the handicap values Pinnacle has set for the NRL 2025 opener between Canberra Raiders and New Zealand Warriors. As you can see, there are different handicap values for the match and the odds vary as you move across the line.
Let’s have a closer look at the +2.5 and -2.5 handicap markets:
- Canberra Raiders at +2.5: The positive handicap implies that the Raiders are the underdogs and the bookies have given them a 2.5-point head start. This means the Raiders must win this tie or lose by two points or less for the bet to pay out.
- New Zealand Warriors at -2.5: The Warriors are the favourites, so the bookies have slapped a 2.5-point deficit on them to even the playing field. As a result, the bet will only be successful if they win by three or more points.
Winning Margin
Bookmakers also offer winning margin bets for rugby league matches. These are also a great option to gain more value from low-risk bets. Winning margin bets are quite similar to handicap bets.
Example:
The screenshot from bet365 shows the winning margin market for the Raiders vs. Warriors match. You can choose to take the bet for either Raiders or the Warriors to win by a margin from 1-12 points. If the winning margin is higher, say the Warriors or Raiders win by 13 points or more, the bet won’t pay.
Future Bets
Future bets are long term bets that punters place on rugby league competitions. These bets are placed well before the season ends. Instead of individual matches, these bets focus on the entire season. Outright winners, highest try scorer in a competition, wooden spoon winner in a tournament; all of these are future bets.
Example:
Here are the outright odds for the NRL 2025 season on Pinnacle. As you can see, the Melbourne Storm, Penrith Panthers, and Brisbane Broncos are the favourites to win the competition. Some bookies also allow placing bets after the season begins.
The odds would reset based on the performances of the teams in the competition. Odds for some underdogs might get shorter because of their solid performance. On the flip side, odds for some powerhouses could lengthen if they don’t live up to expectations.
Try Scorers
Betting on try scorers is a common market in rugby league. The first try scorers market is the most popular among these. It’s not an easy prediction to make, but wingers and fullbacks are often the usual suspects since they tend to score more.
While agility, flair, and speed often make backs and wingers the top try scorers, it’s not always the case. Powerful forwards can also break through defences and muscle their way to the try line. A smart punter will study a team’s recent performances and try scorers to make a more informed wager in this market.
Example:
Let’s have a look at the tryscorer markets for the Raiders vs. Warriors game. As expected, Raiders winger Xavier Savage tops the chart. Interestingly, Warriors centre Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is his nearest competitor.
You can choose to select any of the first, last, and anytime scorer markets. The risk factor is relatively lower in the anytime scorer market, so the odds are also shorter.
How to Bet on Rugby League: Special Tips
Now that you are familiar with the markets, let’s talk strategy. Keep these essential tips in mind to make smarter rugby league bets:
Study Recent Form and Head-to-Head Record
Just like in any other sport, momentum matters the most in rugby league betting. You need to look at the recent forms of teams and lay your bets accordingly. If you have reasons to believe, however, a team can snap its recent slump, go for it. But, it’s a decision you should take based on facts, not gut feeling.
The head-to-head record and home crowd support also come into play. Look at the home and away forms of the teams, and how the teams have fared against each other in the past. Some teams might always do well in certain match-ups, regardless of form. Don’t disregard such historic elements when making your bet.
Consider Player Availability
The presence or absence of key players can significantly swing the momentum of the match. A team might have been on a roll lately, but now that their star winger or forward is suspended or injured, there is a considerable possibility that their hot run is going to end soon.
A key injury can throw a spanner in the works for the coach and even derail a punter’s betting strategy. Study the team’s squad depth and assess how they might cope with the issue. If you believe their form is set to dip, adjust your bets accordingly. If you expect them to maintain their momentum, wager with confidence.
Exploit the Handicap
Bookmakers assess the potential outcome of a match when setting the handicaps. However, their evaluation may not always align with your own reading of the game. This creates an opportunity to spot undervalued bets. Always be on the lookout for such opportunities.
Let’s say a bookmaker has set the handicap too low since they did not take into account that the opposition attack is too good. If you can identify the window, however, don’t hesitate to take it. Handicaps are generally low-risk bets, but if you can play your cards right, you would rarely lose money.
Consider Fixture Congestion and Fatigue
Rugby league is a physically demanding game. Players need proper recovery time before moving on to their next challenge. So, well-rested teams are always a safer bet, even if they come up against a much stronger side. If you want to make underdog picks, this is the best situation to do so in rugby league.
