This weekend, Mexican boxing fans will get to experience what they’ve long been craving. After 11 years fighting abroad, Canelo Alvarez will finally box on Mexican soil. Taking on John Ryder, a British veteran, Alvarez will look to defend his IBF, WBA, WBC and WBO World Super Middleweight titles in front of 50,000 raving fans at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara.
Many are picking this to be a simple tune-up fight for Alvarez after a recent hand surgery. Perhaps this is the case, however that doesn’t prevent some excellent betting on this bout. We break down all the latest odds with bookmaker William Hill and offer up our top Alvarez vs. Ryder tips ahead of Saturday night.
※ Current Odds Date & Time: May 2nd, 10:00 P.M. (GMT)
As expected, William Hill has Alvarez as a heavy favourite heading into this weekend’s clash. With odds of 1.07, Alvarez is well into the 90% region in terms of his implied probability to win. Ryder sits at the other end of the spectrum, paying a lengthy 8.00 for a potential upset victory.
The method of victory odds are similarly skewed with an Alvarez knockout sitting at 1.28. Alvarez winning on points pays a moderate 4.00 while either of Ryder’s win conditions are long shots with a knockout at 15.00 and decision win at 19.00.
※ Current Odds Date & Time: May 2nd, 10:00 P.M. (GMT)
Alvarez should win this one. In fact, it would be one of the greatest upsets in British boxing history if Ryder was to head down to Mexico, box one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world in front of 50,000 home fans, and return home with his four belts. It’s not a likely scenario. However, there are a few betting markets where Alvarez wins and your wager can still bring a healthy return.
The first is looking at when a knockout will occur. We say the mid-late rounds is the strongest option here with Alvarez coming into this clash potentially a little rusty. It’s been nine months since the Mexican last fought, undergoing hand surgery for an injury sustained against Golovkin in September 2022. Chances are he’ll take some time to ease himself into this fight; equally, he won’t want to disappoint home fans and leave this bout to the judges and will likely ramp up for a knockout in rounds 7-9. Bet on this and you’ll see a 3.40 return.
On the other hand, Alvarez could simply box this one out for a points win. There’s very little for the champion to gain by taking risks to score a knockout. He may well view this as a simple warm up fight ahead of a re-match against Dimitrii Bivol and just go through the motions. If it does go the distance, the odds of Alvarez getting the judges’ decision are overwhelmingly strong, considering his boxing prowess, and, well, judges in Mexico.
