There may only be a month left in the ATP Tour’s calendar this year, but that doesn’t stop the tournaments from coming in thick and fast over these final weeks. Hubert Hurkacz barely had time to hoist the Shanghai Masters trophy above his head before the Kinoshita Group Japan Open Tennis Championships were getting underway in Tokyo, with plenty at stake in this ATP 500 event.
A few matches have already been played, with No. 1 seed Alexander Zverev crashing out in a shock upset to Australia’s Jordan Thompson. The loss sees Tommy Paul in prime position to make up some ground in the race to Turin—but can he get past fellow American Taylor Fritz? Or will Felix Auger-Aliassime, who was red-hot on hard courts this time last year, find some much needed form before the end of the season?
We break down all the latest odds from bookmaker bet365 ahead of the Japan Open and outline all the best bets to make this week.
※ Current Odds Date & Time: October 16th, 5:30 P.M. (GMT)
Looking at the outright betting odds for the Japan Open 2023, it’s clear that now favourite Alexander Zverev has been ousted, this will be a tight one. In-form American Tommy Paul has the slight edge at 7.50 to win, only marginally ahead of defending champion Taylor Fritz who sits on 8.00. Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime is close as well, paying 8.50 for what would be a remarkable win, while former world No. 2 Casper Ruud is just behind him at 9.00. Rounding out the top five, Hubert Hurkacz also pays 9.00 to back up his Shanghai victory here in Tokyo.
Looking at the draw, backing Tommy Paul quickly appears to be the best bet here. The American was in Zverev’s quarter, meaning that now he’ll likely need to go through Ben Shelton and Casper Ruud to make the final. Shelton upended him recently at the US Open, however it would be surprising to see the 20-year-old follow up his strong showing in Shanghai, considering he has been wildly inconsistent in 2023. Ruud also doesn’t present much of a threat to Paul, given his hard court form this season (12 wins, 11 losses).
Chances are, Paul will meet another American in the final, likely Taylor Fritz or Frances Tiafoe. Both will have had to go through tough matches—for Tiafoe, possibly Hurkacz and then Alex de Minaur; for Fritz, Karen Khachanov and then Frances Tiafoe. Based on this, expect a fresher, more motivated Tommy Paul to charge his way to victory in Tokyo, lifting his second career title.
