Super bantamweight boxing heads to Tokyo this coming week as Naoya Inoue takes on Marlon Tapales for all the belts the division can offer. In a clash that brings new meaning to the phrase Boxing Day, Christmas will be coming one day late for one of these fighters, while the other will be left with nothing but scraps.
Home favourite Naoya Inoue heads into the fight as the overwhelming favourite, with little giving the Philippines’ Marlon Tapales a chance in this bout. Will we see one of the upsets of the year, or a routine celebration of Inoue’s dominance in Tokyo this Boxing Day? We break down all the latest odds from bookmaker William Hill and outline the best bets to make on this title fight next week.
※ Current Odds Date & Time: December 21st, 7:00 A.M. (GMT)
As expected, it’s all Inoue as far as bookmaker William Hill is concerned. The Japanese boxer is returning an incredibly low 1.06 to win outright, compared to Tapales’ long odds of 9.00 for the victory. The method of victory odds indicate that the bookies believe this will be ending early, with Inoue at 1.17 for a knockout, well ahead of his odds for a decision which are 6.50.
Tapales’ best chance is a knockout, but it’s not looking good at 19.00. This is only marginally ahead of his odds to win on points which are 21.00, not dissimilar to a draw at 23.00.
※ Current Odds Date & Time: December 21st, 7:00 A.M. (GMT)
With such skewed odds, what is the best way to approach betting on this title fight? We say it’s all about choosing when Inoue will knockout Tapales. It’s something of a foregone conclusion that this is how the bout will unfold—the 30-year-old has won 22 of his 25 professional fights by knockout and is several cuts above Tapales.
We suggest betting on Inoue to win by knockout in rounds 1-3. Sure, this is something of a gamble, considering his past two knockouts have come in the eighth and 11th rounds, but looking at Inoue’s record overall, it’s a smart bet. The Japanese native has finished opponents nine times within the first three rounds, including in six of his past nine bouts.
In front of a home crowd, and with Tapales having the weaknesses in his game that saw the Filipino lose to Ryosuke Iwasa in 2019, we say it’s not at all inconceivable that Inoue ends this one fast. With a payout of 6.50 for an Inoue knockout in rounds 1-3, this is a lucrative way of betting on a bout that otherwise offers scant returns.
