This evening will see the 2023 State of Origin Game One take place between Queensland and New South Wales in what should be an incredible rugby league match-up. With decades of fierce history between these two sides, any State of Origin clash is a sight to behold. But in a year where the NRL is being played at such a high level and only a few points separate the top 10 teams after three months, tonight’s match will be a cut above.
Queensland comes into this match as the defending champions, winning the 2022 series 2-1. However, after winning 11 of 12 series between 2006-2017, it hasn’t been all one way traffic for the Maroons in recent years. New South Wales has won three of the past five series and will be looking to add to this record in 2023.
We break down all the best bets to place on the State of Origin Game One with the latest odds from bookmaker William Hill.
※ Current Odds Date & Time: May 30th, 10:30 P.M. (GMT)
Despite being the defending champion, Queensland heads into game one as a slight underdog. Bookmaker William Hill has this as a tight match-up however with New South Wales priced at 1.73 and Queensland at 2.20. The best value we see is in betting on proposition odds, a few of which we’ve selected below.
※ Current Odds Date & Time: May 30th, 10:30 P.M. (GMT)
Many are picking that this will be a tight game won by the big men up front. New South Wales has the advantage in this department with the likes of Payne Haas likely to dominate through the middle. While we don’t disagree that this will be close, we say there’s a good chance more points will be scored than the bookies are forecasting.
Looking at the trend across this year’s NRL, tries have flowed freely. It’s rare to see any single-digit scores in matches, while each round is seeing multiple 40+ tallies recorded. Expect this match to start off as an arm wrestle between the forward packs before opening up more in the second half as players tire and one team is required to play more expansively courtesy of scoreboard pressure.
As a result, we suggest betting on some of the try scoring proposition bets. Each team scoring at least one converted try per half is paying 2.87—a conservative bet, that has a strong chance of coming through. Those after a bigger pay out could take a punt on things opening up even more and betting that each team will score over one try per half—more of a risk but with a much healthier return at 13.00.
Overall, we say back the Maroons for the win here. They have the best outright odds, the momentum from winning last year, plus plenty of in-form Broncos players among their ranks.
