Another Mexican boxer headlines a big event this weekend for Mexican Independence Day, this time with rising lightweight star William Zepeda taking centre stage against Mercito Gesta in California on Saturday night. With Zepeda one of the hottest prospects in the division, can he keep his title aspirations burning brightly with a dominant performance against Gesta?
For all intents and purposes, this is a classic David vs. Goliath match-up—if Goliath was 5’9” and Mexican. Mercito Gesta will be the heavy underdog here, as not only does he come in with a far less distinguished record than his opponent, but he’s getting long in the tooth too, at 35 years old. Can the Filipino pull off a big upset here or will Zepeda continue marching towards a title fight?
We look at all the latest odds from bookmaker bet365 and outline the best bets to make on Zepeda vs. Gesta this weekend.
※ Current Odds Date & Time: September 16th, 3:00 P.M. (GMT)
Bookmaker bet365 has this clash about as one sided as it gets in terms of boxing odds, with youngster William Zepeda sitting at 1.083 outright and Mercito Gesta far behind on 8.00. In terms of method of victory, Zepeda winning by knockout is the most favoured at 1.30, with the Mexican winning on the cards also sitting at 4.50. If Gesta is to make a splash here, bookies are picking it’ll be by stealing a decision, with this paying 12.00.
All this to say betting on Zepeda vs. Gesta is all about deciding when the Mexican is going to knockout his opponent, not if.
※ Current Odds Date & Time: September 16th, 3:00 P.M. (GMT)
To answer that question, let’s look at Zepeda’s past few fights. Overall, he holds an impressive 85% knockout rate, with 24 finishes from 28 fights. Two of the four fights that he’s gone the distance in have come in his last three fights, prior to which he was on a five-year, 15-fight knockout streak.
Since the end of 2019, Zepeda has not gone longer than the sixth round, ending three of his bouts in the second round, one each in the third, fourth and fifth, and two in the sixth round. We say the two best bets based off the Mexican’s track record are to wager on this one being under 7.5 rounds at 1.83 and taking a punt that he’ll make a statement here and wrap things up in the opening three rounds, with a bet returning 6.00. Or for those feeling a little Biblical, back Gesta to hang in and force the judges to decide, with Zepeda winning by decision at 4.50.
