The so-called ‘Golden Swing’ of the ATP Tour continues this week in Rio de Janeiro, with more South American clay at the Rio Open. This ATP 500 event boasts one of the game’s biggest stars—Carlos Alcaraz—up against a handful of dangerous clay court specialists with plenty of ranking points on the line.
Heading into this tournament, Alcaraz is surprisingly in need of some success on court. The Spaniard is now title-less since Wimbledon, after having accrued double-digit titles in the preceding 18 months. Returning to the site of his first big breakthrough in 2022, can the 20-year-old rekindle some magic? Cameron Norrie, Nicolas Jarry and Arthur Fils will certainly hope not as they too eye a big run this week.
We break down all of the latest odds ahead of the Rio Open 2024 with bookmaker William Hill and outline the best bets to make ahead of the first serve in Brazil.
※ Current Odds Date & Time: February 19th, 1:30 A.M. (GMT)
Looking at the outright betting odds from bookmaker William Hill, Alcaraz is an enormous favourite to win the Rio Open. With a return of 1.67, the Spaniard is leagues ahead of next favourite Norrie, who pays 10.00. Close behind Norrie is Jarry on 12.00, with Cerundolo also in contention on 15.00. The odds begin to drop off somewhat from here, with Laslo Djere on 17.00 and Arthur Fils rounding out the top six favourites on 21.00.
The immediate question with these kind of betting odds is whether or not its worth betting on such a heavy favourite as Alcaraz. We say it’s not, and here’s why.
By all means, Alcaraz is the best player in this draw. Purely based on track record and skill, he should win the Rio Open hands down. However, there’s no denying the two-time Grand Slam winner has been in something of a funk, and it’s hard to predict when he’ll come out of this. It might be this week, but given the small 1.67 return that a bet on Alcaraz would garner, we say there’s not enough reason to believe this with confidence.
Instead, we recommend taking a bet on Norrie or Fils. Norrie is the more conservative option. The Brit pays 10.00 and has historically performed well on the Golden Swing winning the Rio Open last year and making the final of Buenos Aires in 2023.
This year, Norrie’s results haven’t been at quite the same level, but the signs have been there. His two most recent losses in 2024 have come last week at the hands of eventual Argentina Open champion Federico Coria, and at the Australian Open in a round of 16 fifth set against world No. 6 Alexander Zverev. Considering he has wins this year over the likes of Casper Ruud and Alex de Minaur, backing Norrie to defend his title for a return of 10.00 is a great bet.
For an even bigger return, betting on Fils to make a deep run and claim his second title could be incredibly lucrative. Sure, the Frenchman has had a mercurial year so far—making the semi-finals in Auckland but losing in the first round of Buenos Aires last week—but when he’s on, he’s on. An Alcaraz stumble in Rio could open up the draw for Fils, and with a bit of confidence, he could well go all the way for a 21.00 return.
