The Chicago Cubs finished of the 2016 regular season as the best team in Major League Baseball with 103 wins, eight more than the next best franchise. And now the Cubs begin their battle with history. As any baseball fan who knows the difference between a passed ball and wild pitch can tell you, the Cubs have not won the World Series since 1908.
History will also tell you that the team with the best record in baseball is not going to win the World Series meaning that the odds are stacked against the Cubs. Since baseball went to a playoff system almost 50 years ago, only one in three of the regular season champs went on to become World Series champions. And since baseball added wild card teams to the playoff jumble 20 years ago, the number has dropped to one in five. The last “best team in baseball” to be crowned world champions was the New York Yankees in 2009.
But, you say, the Cubs have been the best team in baseball all year long. They started the season with a record winning pace and were the first team to win as many as 103 games since those 2009 Yankees. Yes, and that version of baseball’s Bronx Bombers were also the only one of the last nineteen 100-win teams to go on and win the Series. That’s a 1-18 record for 100-win teams in baseball’s playoffs.
So what do the Cubs have to battle this daunting history? Start with pitching. Returning Cy Young Award winner Jake Arieta had another fine season with 18 wins and a 3.10 ERA – and he was only the third best starter on the Chicago staff. Kyle Hendricks and John Lester finished 1-2 in the National League in ERA with marks of 2.13 and 2.44, respectively. Fifth starter Jason Hammel won 15 games and won’t get to the mound as a starter in the postseason. In the middle of the season, despite already being baseball’s best team, the Cubs traded for the premier closer in the game, Aroldis Chapman. Chapman, who regularly trips the radar gun at over 100 mph, struck out nearly two batters per inning and posted a microscopic 1.01 ERA in a Cubs uniform.
The Cubs provide plenty of firepower on offense as well, leading the league in on base percentage and finishing fifth in home runs. Third baseman Kris Bryant with 39 home runs and first baseman Anthony Rizzo with 32 will split a lot of MVP votes in the off-season. But even with the circuit’s best hitting and best pitching the Cubs hold a trump card. The defense was not only the best in baseball but the best by a wide margin. Advanced statistics show that Chicago defenders save an average of half-a-run more per game than any other team. That detail has not escaped the oddsmakers at BetOnline who have made the Chicago Cubs a +225 favorite to capture the World Series.
【2016 MLB World Series Winner Odds】
※ Current Odds Date & Time: October 3, 1:00 p.m. (GMT)
The Cubs’ prime competition in the National League is expected to come from the Washington Nationals, easy winner in the East Division, and the winner of the NL West, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Both are led by superstars with injury questions. The reigning MVP, outfielder Bryce Harper, put up subpar numbers for the Nationals which led to speculation he has has played through discomfort all year long. For the Dodgers, Clayton Kershaw was building the best pitching season in baseball history before suffering a herniated disc in his back. He came back late in September and showed no ill effects and still finished with a 12-4 record and a 1.69 ERA; he struck out 174 batters and walked only 11. His ace counterpart for the Nationals, Max Scherzer, on the other hand, was dominant all season while winning 20 games and striking out 284 in only 228 innings. Both Washington and Los Angeles are listed at +600.
Gamblers no doubt are aware of the tendency for wild card teams to advance all the way to the World Series and the National League non-division winners will offer attractive odds this year – the New York Mets at +1600 and the San Francisco Giants at +2000. The Giants have constructed one of the oddest records in major league baseball history this decade by winning the World Series in 2010 and 2012 and 2014 while being non-competitive in the odd years. This year the Giants have two of the games’s best pitchers in Madison Bumgarner (15-9) and Johnny Cueto (18-5). San Francisco was battling the Cubs as the best team in baseball at the All-Star break but spiraled into one of the worst downturns by a division leader in history before managing to qualify for the playoffs on the last day of the season. It is an even year, however.
For last year’s National League champions, the New York Mets, it was a season of “last man standing.” They entered 2016 with the best young pitching staff in baseball but one after another the corps went down to injury. In the end there was only one young star left – Noah Syndergaard. He will take the mound against Bumgarner in the one-game elimination of wild cards. Sportsbook 18bet likes the hard-throwing Syndergaard in that match-up at -110.
【2016 National League Wild Card Playoff Odds】
※ Current Odds Date & Time: October 3, 1:00 p.m. (GMT)
While the National League has been dominated by pitching, the top teams in the American League have battered their way to the top. The two wild cards, the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays, both came out of the AL East Division and spent the season trading home runs. The Orioles finished with a staggering 253 home runs and the Blue Jays 221. The Orioles have almost no pitching and the Blue Jays (+1200 to win the Series) have at least a little, enough to rate an edge over Baltimore (+2000 Series odds) in the wild card elimination game.
The Texas Rangers were an unexpected winner in the AL West and are the +500 winner to emerge as World Series winner. Cole Hamels (15-5) was the only pitcher on a balanced staff to win more than 10 games and the offense featured five players with over twenty home runs, led by the ageless Adrian Beltre at third base with 32. Well-constructed teams have done well in baseball’s post-season in recent years but if bettors want a team with a star to step up and seize the post-season Texas may be wanting.
One team that won’t be lacking in that hero department will be the Boston Red Sox. 40-year old David Ortiz enjoyed a phenomenal farewell season with a .315/.401/.620 slash line and the Red Sox, who ended their own run of decades-long futility a few seasons back, will be sentimental picks in his last games. Mookie Betts chipped in 31 home runs and 113 RBI and Hanley Ramirez added 30 dingers and 111 runs batted in.
There is star power on the mound as well with Rick Porcello compiling the league’s best record at 22-4 and David Price finishing 17-9. Knuckleball specialist Steven Wright added a 13-6 mark in just 24 starts. The Red Sox are listed at +600 to win the Series.
The American League counterpart to the Chicago Cubs is just down the road on I-80 in Cleveland. The Indians (+800) have not won a world championship since 1948 but the AL Central winners have a hard-hitting line-up and a pitching staff led by 2014 Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber. And also a bit of karma. When the Red Sox ended their 86-year World Series drought in 2004, Terry Francona was the manager. Francona is now in the Indians dugout.
Latest Odds: MLB (courtesy of bet365)
