The Classics are Great Britain’s greatest showcase for breeding stock and the fillies take center stage in The Oaks each year at Epsom Downs. The race is the middle leg of the Fillies’ Triple Crown and after Minding flashed to a three-length win in the 1,000 Guineas Stakes at Newmarket in the kickoff race last month, it will be hard to find much betting conviction for her challengers.
The Irish-bred champion scored important stakes wins in her two-year old campaign at the Moyglare Stud Stakes in Ireland and the Fillies’ Mile in England. She was rewarded with the crown of Cartier Champion Two-year Old Filly and has been rated the best two-year old filly in Europe this year. Doubters, however, can point to Minding’s narrow loss as a prohibitive 4/11 favorite in the Irish 1,000 Guineas three weeks after the 203rd running of the 1,000 Guineas.
The Oaks is all about the numbers – 1 mile, 4 furlongs and 10 yards. That adds up to just more than one and a half miles and getting that distance is always the concern of handicappers. If Minding turns out to be a mile specialist, the race will open up to the hopeful field of 25 entrants. There have also been only five fillies in the past 45 years to complete the 1,000 Guineas/The Oaks double. But so far few are worried about the extra four furlongs as UK bookie Coral has installed Minding, who was considered for the Epsom Derby, as a 10/11 pre-race favourite in The Oaks.
【2016 Oaks Winner Odds】
※ Current Odds Date & Time: May 29, 8:00 a.m. (GMT)
Finding other strong contenders will require analysis beyond past performance on the race track. Turret Rocks has been a middling performer to date – sixth in the 1,000 Guineas – but she is bred for distance running and her connections have pointed her toward The Oaks since she wrapped up her juvenile campaign. Coral gives Turret Rocks a 7-1 chance to run away with The Oaks.
O’Brien will also be saddling the early-line favourite for Britain’s richest race and the most cherished of the season’s five Classics – the Epsom Derby. But unlike Minding, US Army Ranger has garnered his high regard from impeccable breeding and not performance on the track. His dad is Galileo who scored in the 2001 Derby and his mom is Moonstone who won the Irish Oaks four years later. There are many other champions scattered through his impressive pedigree.
US Army Ranger went to post for the first time in April as a 7-4 second favourite in the Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Maiden at Curragh. The big colt won handily without much urging from rider Ryan Moore. Now in his second lifetime race, US Army Ranger will try to win Britain’s biggest race at more than 10 furlongs. It is a formula O’Brien heeded with much success in 2013 with Ruler of the World. Bookmaker Coral has listed US Army Ranger as a 4-1 co-favourite for the Epsom Derby.
【2016 Derby Winner Odds】
※ Current Odds Date & Time: May 29, 8:00 a.m. (GMT)
Another United States-based name garnering pre-race attention is Idaho (from the O’Brien stable as well) whose odds have dipped from 42-1 to 16-1. Idaho led a long way before being run down in April’s Ballsax Stakes. Still another American-flavored horse – Humphrey Bogart – is attracting less attention at 25-1. After winning May’s Lingfield Derby Trial, Bogart’s connections ponied up the £75,000 supplemental fee to get him into the Derby field.
Idaho’s conqueror in the Ballsax, Harzand, has not convinced backers leading up to the Epsom showdown and he in languishing at 20-1 odds. But another recent race winner – Wings of Desire – has impressed punters more. The lightly raced but rapidly progressing colt won the Betfred Dante Stakes in just his third outing and after being supplemented into the Derby has dropped all the way down to 4/1 odds. The Dante is considered the strongest of the Derby prep races. He has plenty of doubters among the cognoscenti but trainer John Gosden has called him “a freak” and Wings of Desire continues to win backers with every impressive morning workout.
With both favourites having only a combined four lifetime races on their resume, there is plenty of hope among the rest of the field. Trainer Sir Michael Stoute, who has won 14 English Classic races, including five Derbies, has pegged his hopes in 2016 on Ulysses, another son of Galileo with exquisite bloodlines. Andrea Atzeni picks up the ride on Ulysses who is fetching 6/1 odds.
On the other side of the coin, the powerhouse connections of the Dubai-based Godolphin Stables have never won an English Derby. It has not been for lack of trying. Godophin has sent 28 horses to Epsom to race under its Royal Blue silks since 1995, often with three and once even four entries in the race. This year’s best bet from Dubai is Cloth of Stars whose daddy Sea the Stars won the Derby in 2009. Mickael Barzalona has piloted Cloth of Stars in all six of his career races and the team has exuded confidence in the weeks leading up to the Derby. Plenty of punters are buying the optimism as Cloth of Stars has been bet down to 6-1 on the eve of the race.
