Puerto Rico’s Subriel Matias and Argentina’s Jeremias Nicolas Ponce will both step into the ring this Saturday evening in Minneapolis to contest the IBF World Super Lightweight title. On paper, this is a fascinating match-up with Ponce coming in at 30-0-0 and Matias at 18-1-0. By the end of the evening one man will have another blemish on his record—will it be Matias, who has made a name for himself as a knockout artist, or Ponce, who is yet to taste defeat as a professional?
We look at all the best odds for this bout with bookmaker William Hill and break down the best bets to make ahead of the first bell this weekend.
※ Current Odds Date & Time: February 25th, 1:30 A.M. (GMT)
Looking at the outright odds from William Hill, we can see that Matias is a reasonable favourite to win on Saturday night, leading Ponce by 1.25 to 4.00. Despite the fact that Matias has one loss to his name while Ponce is unbeaten, the reality is that Matias has been fighting in bigger arenas against tougher opponents than Ponce. This will be Ponce’s first fight in America whereas Matias has fought here plenty of times, including at the MGM Grand.
Matias’s only loss came as a surprise when he was held to a decision loss by Russia’s Petros Ananyan in 2020. However, since then he has bounced back strong in winning his last three fights by knockout, including a ninth round stoppage in his rematch against Ananyan.
※ Current Odds Date & Time: February 25th, 1:30 A.M. (GMT)
Speaking of knockouts, that’s how we believe this fight will end. With odds of 1.57 in favour of Matias winning by knockout, we say this is the best bet to take on Saturday. Matias has won all 18 of his fights by knockout and is ruthlessly focused on putting his opponents on the canvas every time he steps into the ring.
※ Current Odds Date & Time: February 25th, 1:30 A.M. (GMT)
However, there’s a good chance that it will take Matias some time before he’s able to find the knockout against Ponce. After a fast start to his career that saw 15 fights in four years, Matias has slowed up somewhat having not fought since January 2022. Given that Matias hasn’t been in the ring in over a year and Ponce is an excellent boxer, we see this clash taking awhile to warm up before Matias finds the finishing blow.
