The road to Flushing Meadows begins in earnest this week with the first of two consecutive Masters 1000 tournaments on North American hard courts. With the ATP Tour heading to Toronto this year for the National Bank Open 2023 and some of the biggest names in the sport—bar Novak Djokovic—on display this week, there will be plenty of excellent tennis and betting action to be had.
Daniil Medvedev heads to Toronto having won last time the Tour was here, and will be pleased to have the European grass and clay behind him for the year. However, there’s a significant threat to his chances of winning back-to-back National Bank Open titles and that’s Carlos Alcaraz, who is in indomitable form in 2023. Can Medvedev begin the North American hard court season the way he means to carry on or will Alcaraz maintain his Wimbledon momentum?
We break down the latest odds from bookmaker William Hill and outline the best bets to make on the ATP Masters 1000 National Bank Open this week.
※ Current Odds Date & Time: August 7th, 3:00 P.M. (GMT)
Looking at the outright betting odds from William Hill, there are two clear favourites: Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev. The former pays 2.37 to win, while the latter is at 5.00. Outside of these two, the rest of the field is a way off the pace, with Jannik Sinner the next best at 11.00 before a congested pack sit between 13.00 and 17.00, featuring Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev, Taylor Fritz, Holger Rune and Andrey Rublev.
Bottom line, we say the betting odds are a good reflection here and the best bet for an outright winner will be either Alcaraz or Medvedev. The Spaniard comes into the National Bank Open having executed the biggest win of his life at Wimbledon in July, while Medvedev is known to be an excellent hard court player, plus has five titles already in 2023. Where we disagree with the betting odds, however, is which player will win this tournament.
We say that Daniil Medvedev is the best bet for an outright winner here purely because of how the draws have been dealt. Here’s the thing: Alcaraz has a dominant head to head against Medvedev and would likely win if they met in the final. We just don’t think he’ll get there.
For Alcaraz to make the final of the National Bank Open, he’ll likely need to beat Ben Shelton, Hubert Hurkacz, Holger Rune and Jannik Sinner. Essentially, this is as hard as it gets on hard courts, with each of these four players having a genuine shot at upsetting an Alcaraz that hasn’t played in three weeks. Medvedev, on the other hand, has a soft draw, with favourable match-ups waiting like Casper Ruud or Andrey Rublev. Back the Russian for a title defense here and receive a healthy 5.00 payout in return.
