There are few sporting contests in the world closer than Australia’s State of Origin. For more than four decades, the two states have been neck-and-neck when it comes to competing for the annual inter-state bragging rights with series typically going back and forth each year.
Now, heading into game three of the 2023 State of Origin, Queensland has the rare opportunity to put their old foes to the sword and score a 3-0 whitewash. Having won a tight opening game then running away with game two in June, the final match of this year’s competition will play out in front of a packed Sydney crowd that will be hoping their home team can salvage some pride. Who will come out on top this Wednesday?
We break down all the latest odds from bookmaker William Hill and outline the best bets to make on State of Origin game three this week.
※ Current Odds Date & Time: July 11th, 11:00 P.M. (GMT)
Looking at the outright betting odds, it’s no surprise that Queensland holds an edge here after winning the opening two exchanges. The Maroons pay 1.61 for a victory in game three, while New South Wales sit at 2.40 to finish this year’s State of Origin 2-1. A +4 handicap is how William Hill sees this one unfolding with 2.00 the pay out either way.
The logical bettor would say Queensland is the best bet here, considering they put New South Wales to the sword 32-6 just three weeks ago in Brisbane. However, we don’t believe tonight’s game is as simple as wagering on the team that’s been winning to date.
First, of the 41 State of Origin series played over the past 41 years, only seven have ended in a clean sweep 3-0. Of those, only four were in Queensland’s favour. That’s less than once every decade that a Queensland side wins 3-0, just to give an indication of how rare a Maroons victory this evening would be. Second, the venue will be hostile for Queensland and the Blues will be up for this one. While the visitors have already secured the series, New South Wales will have plenty of motivation to salvage a win here.
We expect that the combination of a reshuffled Blues side, a packed out home crowd, and the psychological edge that New South Wales will have to avoid the whitewash will steer them home in a scrappy, low-scoring affair in Sydney. Back the Blues to win outright and get a healthy 2.40 pay out for your troubles.
