As the Moto GP series roars into northern Spain for the Gran Premio Movistar de Aragón and the first of two Spanish rounds that will wind up the 2016 campaign, it is time for punters to take stock of the season and evaluate the impact of changes made by F.I.M. Road Racing prior to the year. Michelin has departed as tire supplier and been replaced by Bridgestone. In the garage, teams are required to limit fuel tank capacity at 22 litres and every bike is outfitted with a unified electronic package. And the number of engines factories are allowed to provide riders for the World Championship season is limited to seven.
Have any of the tweaks had an effect on the track? Well, Marc Marquez, the youngest rider ever to hold a Moto GP driving crown, entered the year as a prohibitive 5/4 favorite to win again and he is in fact the leading points getter with 223. His odds to win the championship have dropped even further. But on the other hand, there have been four first-time winners in the sport’s premier class and that is the first time that has ever happened. And at this point in the season, eight different riders have won successive races – and that is also unprecedented. How does this shake out for handicappers of the Aragon? Bet on the same old chalk or take a flier on an outside contender?
【2016 MotoGP Aragon GP Winner Odds】
※ Current Odds Date & Time: September 25, 3:00 a.m. (GMT)
If anything, the odds on Marquez continuing to the championship should be even lower. He has built a 43-point lead in the points standing over superstar Valentino Rossi and will need only only 83 points to wrap up the title even if Rossi wins all five of the remaining races. Long shot bettors can build a case for Marquez being in a slump – since he took his last checkered flag five races ago the 23-year old Marquez has been able to do no better than to reach the finish line in third place. It is the first time since ascending to GP racing that he has ever gone that long without at least a second place finish. And yet during this “dry stretch” he has outpointed Rossi 78 to 77. Even Rossi has admitted that the points chasm between the two is too wide to bridge.
Racing has only taken place at Aragon with its dramatic stone wall backdrop since 2010 so there is not a whole lot of past performance data for punters to latch onto. The 5.1-km circuit boasts some of the most challenging elevation changes in Moto GP racing along with ten left corners and seven right corners. As a rookie in 2013, Marquez swiped the pole from more experienced riders and won the race which went a long way towards securing that first driving title. Even though he has won only three races this season, Marquez has been installed by bookmaker Unibet as a 1.35 favorite to win the Aragon.
The 37-year old Rossi, however, has not enjoyed any success in the dusty town of Alcañiz. The MotorLand Aragón circuit is one of only three tracks the veteran has never taken the top spot on the podium. In 2013 and 2015 he managed a pair of third place finishes here but never seriously challenged in either race. For Rossi backers it is a dispiriting place to begin his unlikely push for a tenth world championship, seventh in Moto GP. He is listed as a 7.00 second choice.
At 8.00 is Marquez’s fellow Repsol Honda rider Dani Pedrosa. The Catalonian rider is the essence of consistency, having won a race for 15 straight years. He has never won a season title but has never finished worse than fourth in the standings. It is the exact script that is playing out this year with Pedrosi sitting in fourth place on the points table with 145. The win to keep his streak going just came at the San Marino Grand Prix so he will be pushing off from the starting line at Aragon with plenty of confidence.
Listed at 12.00 odds is Rossi’s Movistar Yamaha teammate and reigning Moto GP champion Jorge Lorenzo. Lorenzo’s anticipated season duel with countryman Marquez has withered in recent months, due in part to a series of poor performances in wet conditions. He has slipped an untenable 61 points behind Marquez. Lorenzo is also the two-time defending champion at Aragon (plus second place finishes in 2012 and 2013 and a third in 2011) and while Marquez may be too distant in the point standings Lorenzo would dearly like to pass Rossi as the leading Yamaha driver. He will certainly be motivated on his native soil at Aragon to launch that late season push.
For hunch players that a ninth consecutive different race winner is in the offing, the obvious choice would be Andrea Dovizioso who leads the Ducati team. The 30-year old Italian has had a solid season and is ranked sixth in the point standings. He is the only one in the top eight season leaders not to have won a race. But he is not only without a win in 2016 he has only scored one win in nine years of MotoGP racing – and that was back in 2009. A bet on Dovizioso to make it nine different winners in nine MotoGP races would be the ultimate hunch bet and would return 17.00.
