The Pegasus World Cup doesn’t have any tradition but the idea behind it is as old as horse racing itself. Owners put up their own money and may the best horse win. Frank Stronach, an Austrian businessman and horseman floated the idea last year of a 12-horse race with each owner buying a post for $1 million. Then it’s winner-take-all.
Stronach’s plan was to slot his race out of the way of the big-money affairs at the Dubai World Cup and the Breeder’s Cup and also give the racing season some juice before the spring classic races. Within a week of announcing the Pegasus World Cup last May all the slots sold out. Now it is mid-winter and the actual race is upon us – 9 furlongs, 1 1/8 mile, on the dirt at Florida’s Gulfstream Park.
Although the world’s richest horse race was intended to match the 12 top horses, the inaugural running of the Pegasus World Cup has boiled down to a match race, pitting the two biggest stars in the sport: California Chrome and Arrogate. California Chrome, the 2014 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner, rebounded from a spotty 4-year old season to enjoy an historic 2016 season – six straight wins – all in dominant fashion – en route to becoming the all-time leading North American horse in earnings won.
There was just one glitch – a loss in the stretch run in the Breeders’ Cup Classic to upstart Arrogate, a lightly raced three-year old. California Chrome won his second Eclipse Award as Horse of the Year but his connections will no doubt be going all out to win the Pegasus, in what will be the valedictory race of his legendary career.
Arrogate is trained by Bob Baffert who is no stranger to big money races. He has won twelve American Classic Races, 14 Breeders’ Cup races and two Dubai World Cups. Arrogate was brought along slowly in his debut season in 2016, racing in maiden stakes while the Kentucky Derby was being run. But he announced his arrival in stunning fashion in the summer by setting a track record at Saratoga in the Travers Stakes. He then ran down California Chrome in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in a race for the ages.
So what’s to choose between these two champions at Gulfstream this week? In the Breeders’ Cup classic, California Chrome recorded a career best Beyer Speed Figure with 119, Arrogate posted a 120. Arrogate is ranked #1 in the World’s Best Racehorse Rankings – a single point better than California Chrome. Chrome was sent to the post as the favorite last November in the Breeder’s Cup but bookie bet365 has posted Arrogate as the even money, 1/1 favorite, this go round. California Chrome will go to the post at 5/4.
【2017 Pegasus World Cup Winner Odds】
※ Current Odds Date & Time: January 25, 1:00 p.m. (GMT)
The only thing that could differentiate the two horses is that Arrogate has drawn the #1 post and California Chrome will break from the far outside #12 gate. And what about the ten horses bracketed in between the two best race horses in the world, each of whom paid $1 million to be here? Well, the first thing to know about looking for an upset is that when Arrogate and California Chrome flashed across the finish line at Santa Anita in the Classic, the next closest horse was ten lengths behind.
Working from that baseline, the next horse to give a look at will be Keen Ice, listed at 25/1. If Keen Ice never wins another race he will be remembered for upsetting Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in the 2015 Travers Stakes at 16/1 odds. A son of Curlin, the previous all-time money winner before overtaken by California Chrome, Keen Ice has the pedigree to pull another major upset but he was the show horse that finished the dispiriting third against the top two choices in November. Keen Ice is one of two horses saddled by Todd Pletcher in the Pegasus.
Noble Bird is third choice at UK sportsbook bet365 at 20/1. Noble Bird won his first outing in Grade 1 competition back in June of 2015 at the Stephen Foster Handicap. But since that breakthrough, he has finished 9th, 6th, 5th and 7th in Grade 1 stakes races. That is a long way from the winner’s circle against top horseflesh and Noble Bird has never looked eye to eye with California Chrome. If any punter tries to make the case for Noble Bird one can always reach back to his father Birdstone who, in 2004, wrecked Smarty Jones’ Triple Crown bid in the Belmont Stakes as a 36/1 winner.
For those handicappers who prefer to look at lightly raced horses on the hope that they have not had the spirit beaten out of them by repeated drubbings at the hooves of better stock there is Neolithic at 25/1. The other Pletcher-trained entry, Neolithic enjoyed a front-running nine-length romp in a minor allowance race at Gulfstream last month. Now he gets bumped all the way into the richest horse race in history. Well, Leicester and the Chicago Cubs were champions in the past six months, so anything is possible.
The founder of the race, Frank Stronach, has an entry in his own race (he also owns the racetrack) which might generate consideration. That would be Shaman Ghost and he is a Grade 1 stakes winner, stealing the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga last summer at this distance. Shaman Ghost will break from the three hole and should be a contender for a trifecta wagering at 33/1.
But the first edition of the Pegasus World Cup has turned out not to be a bettor’s race but a racing fan’s race. How many times do you get to enjoy a rematch of the top two sluggers in the game going right back at each other. No wonder they are both going off at nearly even money odds. Take your pick.
