Only time will tell, but the 2023 ATP Tour clay court season certainly seems like one of the most open in decades. No Rafael Nadal smashing heavy topspin forehands to dominate the court, no Novak Djokovic grinding out points like a wall behind the baseline, not even an in-form Stefanos Tsitsipas or Casper Ruud to fill the void. Instead, lucky losers are making finals and teenagers are schooling the rest of the Tour on how to play ball.
This week at the Rome Masters 2023, one final opportunity presents itself for Roland Garros hopefuls to build some momentum ahead of the year’s second Grand Slam. Novak Djokovic returns just in time, while Jannik Sinner is also back in action following an illness. Can either of these two stop Carlos Alcaraz’s hot streak or will the Spanish prodigy claim yet another clay court title?
We answer these questions and more as we break down the latest betting odds on the Italian Open 2023 with odds from bookmaker William Hill.
※ Current Odds Date & Time: May 9th, 10:00 P.M. (GMT)
Two men sit well ahead of the pack in the outright betting odds—Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic. With odds of 2.25 and 4.00 at bookmaker William Hill, the World No. 1 and No. 2 players are heavy favourites to lift the title in Rome. Behind them, Jannik Sinner is the third favourite at 8.50 before the odds drop off to Holger Rune and Stefanos Tsitsipas at 13.00 and 15.00 respectively.
One big variable may impact who wins the Rome Masters over the next week and a half: the weather. Persistent rain is in the forecast, which very likely means a compact playing schedule with the potential of multi-match days for players. Add in Rome’s very different conditions compared to the previous two clay court Masters 1000 events—warmer weather, faster balls and a shortened area behind the baseline—and we’re starting to get a clear picture of who will thrive over the next 12 days in Rome.
We believe the weather and conditions favour the likes of Jannik Sinner and Andrey Rublev the most. Both men are in excellent form in 2023—Rublev winning Monte Carlo and Sinner making the semi-finals or better in five of his past six events prior to a Barcelona withdrawal.
Most importantly, both come into Rome well rested. Rublev exited Madrid early, while Sinner sat out the tournament with an illness. Should a grueling final stretch of the Rome tournament be required, Sinner and Rublev will have fresher legs than the rest of the draw—particularly compared to Alcaraz who’s played a lot of tennis the past month.
As well as their fresh legs, both Sinner and Rublev play aggressive tennis. The conditions suit this style perfectly and will reward it against players who are used to playing deeper and relying on spin. We say that Sinner will have what it takes to move past a rusty Djokovic in the semi-finals and then overcome Rublev in the final to break the Italian hoodoo in Rome.
