Coming this Saturday, August 12th from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, the number 10 ranked Vincente Luque will square off against former UFC Lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos, who is moving up to the 170 pound welterweight division for this fight.
Luque has won eight different bonuses for his fighting style of taking punishment to give it, making him a fan favorite. This weekend, he squares off against a legend in RDA who has fought one of the toughest MMA schedules of his generation, fighting a who’s who of contenders and champions in current champ Leon Edwards, Kamaru Usman, Tony Ferguson all in their prime.
Will the “Silent Assassin” Luque be able to stop his two fight losing streak and march back towards title contention? Or will the wily veteran in RDA prove he’s got plenty of gas left in the tank for a final title run with the UFC? Stay tuned as we break down the odds with sportsbook William Hill to find the best bets on Saturday.
※ Current Odds Date & Time: August 11th, 11:00 P.M. (GMT)
Bookmaker William Hill currently has Rafael Dos Anjos listed as the slight favorite at 1.80 for the outright win. Luque, in comparison, is listed as the very marginal underdog at 2.00. Looking at the method of result wagers to increase the chances of finding a winner, we can see that Dos Anjos by knockout shows at 7.50, with the 38-year-old to win by decision at 3.30. RDA to win by submission sits at 5.00, while Vicente Luque to win by knockout pays out at 3.40, with a win by decision listed at a 6.50 payout. Luque also returns 6.50 to win by submission.
※ Current Odds Date & Time: August 11th, 11:00 P.M. (GMT)
Looking at each fighters’ record, Luque is 21-9 with 11 wins by knockout, eight by submission, and two by decision. Of his nine losses, six were by decision, two by submission, and only one from knockout. This says Luque is at his best when aggressive and finding finishes. Decisions have not favored him.
RDA, on the other hand, has seen it all, winning in every way possible. However, he’s had zero knockouts in the last eight years. Instead, he’s evolved into a wrestler, finding take-downs, control time, and submissions with very educated grappling and jiu-jitsu.
In this week’s best bets, look for Dos Anjos to implement a heavy grappling style with take-down and clinch time against the fence to keep himself safe from Luque’s explosive striking ability. This wins minutes and rounds and thus makes RDA to win by decision at 3.30 very enticing for a punt. For those leaning Luque to prosper, he has a 38% win by submission rate, and you can take him to win by submission at 6.50.
