The UFC is on the road again this weekend with Sao Paulo, Brazil hosting 11 exciting mixed martial arts fights this Saturday night. As expected, given the location, there are plenty of Brazilian fighters in action and none more prominent than Jailton Almeida, who is headlining UFC Sao Paulo as he takes on fellow heavyweight Derrick Lewis in the main event.
This bout is an exciting one given that we know exactly what Lewis will deliver and very little about how Almeida will perform. Lewis is a regular in the UFC heavyweight division and has produced some of the most spectacular knockouts the promotion has seen—while also losing 11 times across his career, including three in a row recently. Almeida, on the other hand, is yet to fight a big name, with this clash being a real test for the Brazilian.
Who will come out on top in Sao Paulo? We break down all the latest betting odds from bookmaker bet365 to find out and outline the best bets to make on Almeida vs. Lewis this weekend.
※ Current Odds Date & Time: November 4th, 8:00 A.M. (GMT)
Home favourite Jailton Almeida is also the betting favourite, with a return of 1.20 at bookmaker bet365 for the Brazilian to win at UFC Sao Paulo. Veteran Derrick Lewis is the heavy underdog, paying a long 4.80 should he prevail in this bout.
A submission is how the bookies see this ending, courtesy of Almeida, with this result paying a low 1.80. Next is an Almeida knockout at 3.00, before Lewis’s best shot is understandably a knockout at 6.00. It’s highly unlikely this will go the distance, with odds of 15.00 and 19.00 for either fighter to win on points. The only thing more unlikely is Lewis extracting a second career submission, which pays a whopping 41.00.
※ Current Odds Date & Time: November 4th, 8:00 A.M. (GMT)
Anyone who has even remotely followed the UFC will know that Derrick Lewis is famous for one thing: knockouts. The veteran has won virtually all of his fights by way of knockout, with his last four coming this way.
At age 38, the writing is on the wall for Lewis. Having once defeated Francis Ngannou, his days of holding his own with the best are gone as evidenced by his losses to Ciryl Gane, Tai Tuivasa, Sergei Pavlovich and Serghei Spivac across 2021-2023. However, he’ll always have his knockout power and is increasingly becoming a threat for the early win given how well he understands his own limitations.
The conservative bet on this bout would be to go for an Almeida submission. He’s far superior on the mat than Lewis, who has been submitted by even the tamest of grapplers in recent years. The American has also proven his inability to go the distance and will be easy pickings if Almeida can avoid engaging in the early striking exchanges.
For those after a little more value, betting on Lewis to win in the first round at 7.50 is a great bet. He’ll know it’s essentially his only chance of winning the fight—as was the case in his two most recent wins—and given his track record, there’s every chance he comes out blazing and pulls it off.
