Cox Plate
It is a tough time to be an owner of weight-for-age horses in Australia – unless of course you have five-year old mare Winx racing your colors as Peter Tighe does for his Magic Bloodstock stables. Winx has won 16 of her 22 starts including her last 12 in a row. That streak includes last year’s Cox Plate, Australia’s premier weight-for-age race, when she found a clean inside rail trip and sprinted to a record time of 2:02.98 on the Moonee Valley Racecourse oval. And she carried more weight than any other mare in Cox Plate history.
Coming into this year’s Cox Plate, trainer Peter Moody has dubbed Winx “unbeatable” and there has been nothing evident on the track to dispute Moody’s confidence. If anything Winx’s connections are already pointing to three consecutive Cox Plate scores, a feat only accomplished by Kingston Town more than three decades ago. In the draw for barriers, Moody won second choice and selected barrier three, an ideal position to take dead aim at a repeat win at Moonee Valley for the country’s most popular horse. UK bookie Ladbrokes is sending Winx to post as an even-money 1/1 favorite.
Of course you can’t have a horse race without a field and there are plenty of dreamers chasing the $3 million Cox Plate purse. Tighe can certainly relate to their lots as he spent most of his 20 years in racing with no success in Group 1 until Winx game along. Hartnell, an Irish import from the formidable Godolphin stables, sets up as the principle threat to unseat the reigning Aussie Horse of the Year. Hartnell was a well-beaten fifth in the 2015 edition of the Cox Plate to Winx and in fact has gone up against her three times with an average margin of defeat of six lengths.
【Ladbrokes: 2016 Cox Plate Winner Odds】
※ Current Odds Date & Time: October 20, 1:00 a.m. (GMT)
But since the calendar flipped to September, the six-year old gelding has seemed to discover a different gear. Hartnett won by 7.8 lengths in the Chelmsford at Randwick and then came back two weeks later to thump the field in the Hill Stakes by 5.8 lengths. Then came a 3.3-length romp to victory in the Turnbull Stakes. This trio of impressive performances has supporters oozing with confidence. That trio may be shortsighted, however. Hartnett’s last time out before his three-win streak was a 3.5-length loss to Winx in the Warwick Stakes. Nonetheless, sportsbook bet365 has stripped the field of all betting choices save a match race between Hartnell (5/4) and Winx (62/100).
【bet365: 2016 Cox Plate Winx vs. Hartnell Odds】
※ Current Odds Date & Time: October 20, 1:00 a.m. (GMT)
For those looking to fill out trifecta bets, the French import Vadamos carries the highest rating, 121, of the remaining entries in the 10-horse Cox Plate field. Vadamos is new to the Moonee Valley turf but has found success in Group 1 racing this year in France. If Valdamos pulls the upset at 10-1, he will become only the second horse trained in the northern hemisphere to win this race Down Under.
Another upset candidate looms on the distaff side in Yankee Rose, who was the first filly ever to take down the lads in the Spring Champion Stakes at 2000 metres. She will be attractive to bettors who like to spot money on lightly raced potential champions at 14-1 but her precociousness works against Yankee Rose in the Cox Plate – no three-year old filly has found the winner’s circle since Surround way back in 1976. Hauraki, 16-1, has been drawing tepid support and is a strong play in trifectas as the five-year old has finished in the money in 14 of 20 career starts. Hauraki, who is trained by John O’Shea along with Hartnett, has also been a strong performer at distances over 2000 metres and will likely be closing in the 2040-metre Cox Plate.
Melbourne Cup
There are 41 horses still in the running to go to post for the Melbourne Cup, the richest “two-mile” handicap in racing. This is actually a thin year for handicappers to parse out likely winners; past years have been crowded with twice as many contenders. The final field of 24 will not be set until the Saturday before the 3200-metre race at Flemington Racecourse on Tuesday, November 1.
【bet365: 2016 Melbourne Cup Winner Odds】
※ Current Odds Date & Time: October 20, 1:00 a.m. (GMT)
So far the early favorite is Hartnell at 15/4 on the hoofbeats of his recent form. If he were to finally take down Winx in the Cox Plate, Hartnell would then be bidding to be only the seventh horse in history to pull off a double with the Melbourne Cup. Hartnell’s odds have been dropping with each successive victory over the past two months so backers expecting his current run to swell into something historic should jump on now.
Jameka has been looming as second favourite and is currently listed at 11/2. The four-year old mare has been a reliable performer and solidified her elite class bonafides with a recent victory in the Caulfield Cup against a star-laden international field. The victory had the unfortunate consequence of adding a 1.5-kilogram penalty in the Melbourne Cup but recent form suggests carrying a bit of extra weight – even though no four-year old mare has ever lugged more – will not affect the $3 million lifetime winner.
Bondi Beach, a top class Irish stayer, is back for another crack at the Melbourne Cup. The four-year colt out of champion Galileo – five-time champion sire of Great Britain and Ireland – is trained by esteemed Aidan O’Brien and ran a disappointing 16th in last year’s Cup. O’Brien had aimed for four horses at Melbourne but Bondi Beach is his last hope and is offered at 10/1.
Exospheric, who went from a noun to an adjective when his name was changed from Exosphere, ran a strong Caulfield Cup and has extracted 14/1 odds from the bookmakers at bet365. Heartbreak City is another runner who will attract attention after the veteran campaigner ran to the front of the pack in the Ebor, the richest flat racing handicap in Europe, and cruised to a four-length win. And as race day approaches, punters will want to keep an eye on Secret Number, who is aptly named. The six-year old from the Godolphin stables does not show up on the track often – just five races in the past three years. But those five have produced three wins and two seconds. Most recently Secret Number showed up at Ayrshire in Scotland in September and smoked the field in the Doonside Cup after a 313-day layoff. Not a bad tightener for the 33-1 shot in the Melbourne Cup.
Latest Odds: Melbourne Cup (courtesy of bet365)
