As the 2017 sumo circuit gets underway bettors are faced with that most vexing of sports handicapping conundrums – is it time to start betting against the greatest of all time?
That would be Hakuho Sho, the Mongolian wrestler who has piled up 33 top division titles – the most ever by a sumo wrestler. Numbers 32 and 33 came last year but the end of 2016 saw Hakuho sit out his first tournament since 2006 because of injury and lose two others. He had surgery on a troublesome toe and came back to post an 11-4 record in the Kyushu basho in November but did not win the tournament. During that event Hakuho became only the third wrestler to notch 1000 career bout wins.
But Hakuho is just months away from his 32nd birthday and seven years removed from a 2009 season when he was nearly automatic, winning 86 of 90 bouts. His streak of 51 consecutive tournaments with at least 10 bout wins, a feat to rank with the best run of consistency in any sport, is also in the rear view mirror. For those looking to build a case against Hakuho there is also the matter that the January basho has historically been his weakest; he has only won in Tokyo four times in 12 attempts as a yokozuna. Hakuho has won at least half the time at each of the other five bashos during the year.
But for those anticipating the glory days for Hakuho continuing they can point to the fact that he has never gone more than his current three tournaments without a win. Before his toe injury he dominated last spring’s bashos by winning 29 of 30 bouts. And backers will find the friendliest odds on the master champion in years – Marathonbet has posted Hakuho at 1.90 for the January basho.
【2017 Hatsu Basho Tournament Winner Odds】
※ Current Odds Date & Time: January 6, 2:00 a.m. (GMT)
Kisenosato Yutaka took advantage of Hakuho’s missing a tournament to win the 2016 season bout crown with 69 wins. Hakuho managed 62 in his five tournaments and it was the first time since 2006 he had not claimed the season win total. The Japanese ozeki, however, was unable to convert those bout wins into a tournament title – the first to ever achieve that dubious fate. In fact, Kisenosato was a candidate twice last year for promotion to yokozuna but failed to secure the critical wins necessary both times. Now 30 years old, Kisenosato has been one of the most consistent wrestlers at the ozeki level, scoring double-digit win totals in tournaments 20 times but has never won one. If he finally breaks through in Tokyo this week in front of his countrymen, he will reward believers at 5.00.
The third favourite is Mongolian Harumafuji Kohei, who at 32 years of age is entering his fifth season wrestling as a yokozuna. Since recovering from an elbow injury late in 2015, Harumafuji has won two of seven tournaments and averaged almost 12 wins per basho. Harumafuji is the lightest wrestler in the top division and must be fit to make maximum use of his speed advantage. That style has been especially potent at the start of the year; Harumafuji swept all 15 bouts in Tokyo in 2013, won 11 in 2015 and 12 in 2016. Bettors can grab him at 5.50 odds.
Kakuryu Rikisaburo is the third yokozuna in the January tournament field and he too passed his 30th birthday last year. What exactly does age mean to the sumo prognosticator? Taiho Koki won 32 top-level tournaments but only one after he crossed over the line from his twenties. On the other hand, Chiyonofuji Mitsugu had only 16 basho titles when he celebrated his 30th birthday and won 15 more times.
How has Kakuryu, known for his skillful technique, fared in his two bashos since turning 30 last August? Very well, thank you. Finally healthy after battling ankle and back woes, he scored ten bout wins at the Aki basho in Tokyo and then won his third career tournament in November at Fukuoka with a career-tying 14 bout wins. Kakuryu’s only loss was to Kisenosato and he whipped Hakuho to secure the title. Marathonbet rates him a 7.00 choice to win back-to-back championships.
With the three active yokozunas, all seemingly healthy if a bit long in the tooth, in the field along with last year’s win leader, long shot bettors will truly be bucking the sumo odds in this one. To buoy their spirits, a never-happened-before sumo moment is fresh in the mind from the September Aki basho in Tokyo. In that tournament Goeido Gotaro became the first wrestler from Osaka prefecture to win a top division title since 1930. It was the first ever championship for the ozeki-ranked grappler and he became the first ever to join the ranks of champions with a 15-0 mark. Goeido had just passed his 30th birthday and was the fifth-oldest first time winner.
The next time out Goeido continued his magic by winning his first five bouts but his mojo was rudely disrupted in losses to each of the three yokozuna in the November basho. When he gets back into action this week, Goeido will hope to revitalize his push to the rank of yokozuna to become Japan’s first ultimate sumo wrestler this century. He is in far better position than he was last year at this time when a 4-11 mark in this tournament left him staring at demotion. If a second tournament win in three outings happens bettors holding the winning ticket on Goeido will be nearly as happy as the sumo wrestler himself, having scored 14.00 odds.
Japanese fans will also be hoping lightning strikes once again at the Hatsu basho for Kotoshogiku Kazuhiro who became the first Japanese-born winner of a top division tournament in ten years last year when he won with a 14-1 record. That improbable result was capped by Kotoshogiku sending Hakuho to the straw after losing 46 of their previous 50 bouts. The rest of 2016 did not go nearly so well for Kotoshogiku Kazuhiro. There were ankle injuries and a bum knee. In the November basho he managed only a 5-10 record. To repeat last year’s wondrous win backers would hope to be getting better than Kotoshogiku’s current 16.00 odds.
