It’s been a golden year of mixed martial arts action so far in 2023, and there are no signs of the promotion slowing down any time soon. After Jon Jones lit up the octagon with a first round finish over Ciryl Gane and Leon Edwards edging out Kamaru Usman yet again, this weekend will see Alex Pereira and Israel Adesanya add another chapter to their fascinating rivalry.
Having fought three times previously, with one bout just five months ago in the UFC, this fight is a mouth-watering prospect for lovers of mixed martial arts. Alex Pereira has had the better of the rivalry to date on paper, but with Israel Adesanya knowing that this may well be his last shot at getting one back on his nemesis and with the UFC Middleweight Championship on the line at UFC 287, will we see a big result on Saturday night?
Bookmaker William Hill has all the odds as we breakdown this fight and offer up the best bets to make on Pereira vs. Adesanya II.
※ Current Odds Date & Time: April 5th, 11:30 P.M. (GMT)
With Alex Pereira having beaten Israel Adesanya three times in the past seven years, you’d think the Brazilian would hold an advantage in the betting odds. However, looking at the outright winner odds from bookie William Hill, that’s not the case heading into UFC 287. Yet again, Israel Adesanya is the favourite to win this clash with odds of 1.73 to win, compared to Pereira’s 2.10 for the win.
Breaking down the odds even further, the most likely result here based on the bookies’ numbers is an Adesanya victory on points. This results pays 2.75, marginally ahead of the next most likely outcome, which is a Pereira knockout at 3.00. Adesanya winning by knockout is a reasonable bet as well at 4.00, while both men pay long odds for the submission, at 11.00 and 26.00.
※ Current Odds Date & Time: April 5th, 11:30 P.M. (GMT)
Ask any UFC fan or expert commentator and they’ll have a different opinion on how they believe this fight is going to go. Some say Pereira has done it three times before, of course he’ll do it a fourth as well. Others say the Brazilian got lucky and Adesanya’s class will win out eventually. Still others are simply excited to see a hotly contested fight with no obvious winner.
We say there are two good bets to take here for very different reasons. First, wagering on the fight to go more than 3.5 rounds is bringing a healthy return of 1.61. Across their three previous fights, one has gone the distance, and two have finished in the third and fifth rounds. Statistically speaking, this one is likely to go over 3.5 rounds.
Second, taking a punt on Adesanya to score his first UFC submission at 11.00 is a great bet as well. Not just because of how lucrative this wager is but also because of the fact that the Nigerian-Kiwi will know that he needs to do something different and a more grappling-heavy approach could be the answer.
