Before American Pharoah captured the Triple Crown of Thoroughbred Racing last year you had to go all the way back to 1978 to find another horse to sweep the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. That was Affirmed and he accomplished the feat on the fast-moving heels of Seattle Slew in 1977. Will there be back-to-back Triple Crown winners again? You can’t do it without winning the first leg – the Kentucky Derby.
The Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May is notoriously difficult to handicap. The field of 20 horses is more than twice as large as almost any other thoroughbred race. This is the first time precocious three-year olds are ever exposed to crowds of 150,000 partiers. This is the first time the youngsters are asked to cover 10 furlongs in a race. With all that, what horse is most likely to start down the Triple Crown path in hopes of duplicating American Pharoah in 2016?
According to bet365 that horse will be Nyquist, undefeated in seven races, who has been installed as a 7-2 favorite. In spite of all the difficulties of handicapping a 20-horse field, favorites have scored in three straight Kentucky Derbies – Orb in 2013, California Chrome in 2014 and American Pharoah in 2015. To date Nyquist has confounded handicappers by outperforming his Beyer Speed Figures – those numbers that seek to evaluate a horse’s performance given track conditions and speed of a race. Despite facing opponents with better numbers on paper, the California runner won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the top race for two-year old horses, and flashed to victory in his most important Kentucky Derby prep test, the Florida Derby.
Even given the seven-for-seven start to his racing career, Nyquist’s backers are given pause by his pedestrian pedigree and questions about his breeding to perform well at longer distances such as the mile-and-a-quarter Kentucky Derby. On the plus side for the California runner, trainer Doug O’Neill has groomed the bay colt to succeed in a variety of race scenarios, whether it is coming from behind or racing out near the lead. Nyquist will likely be unfazed by whatever fate befalls him early in the Kentucky Derby going.
【2016 Kentucky Derby Winner Odds】
※ Current Odds Date & Time: May 5, 2:00 a.m. (GMT)
Despite his glittering record, Nyquist was not the early Kentucky Derby favorite. The horse drawing most of that early money was a roan colt, Mohaymen. Mohaymen had been clicking off easy victories one after another and was undefeated until he met Nyquist in the nine-furlong Florida Derby. Mohaymen finished a well-beaten fourth with no excuses for his lackluster performance in perfect weather on a fast track.
Mohaymen had been the favorite in that race but since then he has shorn betting money like so much clods of dirt from his racing shoes. Bettors who believe his troubling performance at Gulfstream in early April was merely an aberration can grab the talented son of Tapit at 8-1 odds. Doubters can point to the fact that Mohaymen’s five impressive victories were in Grade 2 events and he was exposed against stiffer competition in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Most damning, Mohaymen never seemed to respond when challenged for the first time in race conditions.
Joining Mohaymen at 8-1 odds is Exaggerator, who has Seattle Slew blood coursing through his veins. The California-based colt is trained by J. Keith Desormeaux and won his most recent effort in his most impressive race, the Santa Anita Derby, by charging from ten lengths off the pace to win by open lengths in sloppy conditions. Exaggerator will be the play for punters who like to see horses come with late speed but such players will take pause when confronted with the fact that Exaggerator has faced Nyquist three times on the track and lost each time convincingly.
As the field moves into longshot territory, Gun Runner (14-1) has been attracting consideration thanks to his consistency. The Steve Asmussen-trained colt actually piled up more Kentucky Derby qualifying points than favorite Nyquist and rolled to his biggest victory in the Louisiana Derby. Gun Runner shows both speed and stamina in his breeding and has lost only one race, last year at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.
Another Derby contender Asmussen has in training is Creator. Creator has been brought to Louisville slowly, beginning his racing career on turf and not breaking his maiden dirt race until his sixth start. Creator likes to close and a 23-year old jockey threaded him through the entire field to win the Arkansas Derby, a major Kentucky Derby prep race. The grey colt is offered to the betting public at 16-1 odds.
The Kentucky Derby field is thick with closers and bettors hoping for early speed that can steal the race by sprinting out front of the traffic of a 20-horse race will want to consider Danzing Candy at 25-1. While most of the time Danzing Candy falls back, every so often – like in the San Felipe Stakes in March – he holds enough speed for a successful stretch run.
American Pharoah trainer Bob Baffert has staked his chances of repeating on the dark bay colt Mor Spirit. In addition to winning with Pharoah, who is out to stud just down the road from Churchill Downs in Versailles, Kentucky, Baffert has three other Kentucky Derby wins on his resume.
Baffert and Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens have been pointing Mor Spirit to the Kentucky Derby since putting the horse into training. Tactical decisions in individual races have all been pursued with that goal in mind. So when Mor Spirit slipped in the slop during the Santa Anita Derby, Stevens did not hustle him back into the race too quickly. Even while rating the horse, Mor Spirit passed tiring horses in the mud to finish a strong second – and save himself for a big Derby run. Just like American Pharoah did last year.
