UFC 301 has touched down in Rio de Janeiro for this week’s ESPN+ pay-per-view card. In the main event, UFC flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja is set to lock horns with rising star Steve Erceg. The Jeunesse Arena crowd will be cheering for another sweeping victory for their local boy Pantoja, but Erceg could prove to be a formidable challenge for the Brazilian. Read on as we discuss the latest UFC 301 odds and outline how we see the fight unfolding.
UFC 301 Predictions
As Pantoja prepares to defend the UFC Flyweight title in his hometown, here’s how we see the action playing out in the main event:
Pantoja to Win in Second Round
Pantoja dethroned two-time champion Brandon Moreno in a July slugfest to claim the UFC Flyweight belt. He then defended it for the first time in December, out-grappling Brandon Royval to stay king of the division and extend his winning run to five. We expect him to impress once again when he crosses paths with Erceg.
Erceg boasts a 3-0 record in the UFC, but let’s not get carried away. He is yet to take on somebody as high-profile as Pantoja. The sample size is very small, so we cannot back him with confidence to get the better of Pantoja, who will also enjoy local support. We expect the current flyweight champion to come out swinging and claim a second round victory.
Pantoja to Win Via Submission
Looking at a specific method of victory for our UFC 301 predictions, we say this one will end in a submission. Pantoja’s grappling is his signature strength, where he prioritises controlling his opponents on the ground rather than going for the knockout. While he always looks for submission openings, his attempts haven’t come off in his last two fights. Perhaps the third time will be the lucky one.
UFC 301 Odds
Erceg’s slick boxing is a standout in the UFC flyweight ranks. His ability to weave combinations and control the range presents a genuine threat to Pantoja. While a knockout for Erceg remains a possibility, the common belief is Pantoja will prevail in the UFC 301 main event.
※ Current Odds Date & Time: May 1st, 12:00 P.M. (GMT)
The Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg odds for a second round Pantoja victory are at 8.50. Going for either of the fighters to win at 5.50 is a safer pick, but we will stick to our original prediction for a higher payout.
※ Current Odds Date & Time: May 1st, 12:00 P.M. (GMT)
Pantoja is expected to win via decision or technical decision at odds of 3.50, while the same outcome for Erceg is priced at 6.50. Interestingly, Erceg has shorter odds for a knockout victory (4.75) compared to Pantoja (5.50). Pantoja is the favourite to win by submission at 3.60, while Erceg’s chances of securing a submission win are a distant 15.00.
This should be a straightforward win for Pantoja as long as he doesn’t underestimate Erceg’s capabilities. The Australian can be a challenging opponent, but Pantoja’s greater experience and more polished skillset should see him retain the title.
