The powers-that-be at the United States Open are fond of saying they “are not interested in trying to embarrass the best players in the world, they are trying to identify them.” Handicappers approaching the 2015 U.S. Open at Chambers Bay Golf Course on Washington’s Puget Sound would certainly appreciate the difficulty in identifying the best golfers this year.
As always, there is no shortage of contenders. Start with the top two betting favorites at all the sportsbooks: Northern Ireland’s Rory McIlroy (7.50 at Bovada) and Jordan Spieth (8.00). McIlroy has been the dominant player in the game for the past two years, winning majors and destroying fields. But he continues to be maddeningly inconsistent. In his two most recent outings the world number one missed the cut at both the BMW PGA at Wentworth and his home tournament, the Irish Open. In the month leading up to the U.S. Open, the only way McIlroy has been able to play on the weekends is the same way everyone does – by making the cut.
【Bovada: 2015 US Open Golf Tournament Winner Outright Odds】
※ Current Odds Date & Time: June 15, 3:00 a.m. (GMT)
The 21-year old Spieth took the golf world by storm with his landmark win in the Masters in April. There have been no wins since, however, including uninspiring tournaments in his Texas backyard. There have been flashes of brilliance to argue against a post-Augusta slump and backers are no doubt encouraged by an exciting final round 65 at the Memorial to race up to a third place finish. Still, it is hard to stamp him as being in top form.
Any discussion of form on the professional golf tour begins and ends with Tiger Woods. The winner of 14 major championships – but none since 2008 – has befuddled oddsmakers all season long. In the last six majors, Woods has missed two because of injury, missed the cut in one, and finished 40th and 69th. In this year’s Masters, Woods flashed briefly into contention but finished 14th. Despite all that, the odds on Tiger Woods winning at least one major title during the 2015 season were a skimpy 2 to 1 just a few months ago.
Even as he has fallen to #181 in the world, oddsmakers have been reluctant to drop his odds too sharply in the event Woods is able to awaken the echoes of his storied past. Going into the action in during this month’s Memorial Tournament in Columbus, Ohio, Woods was still rated as one of the favorites at 15.00 despite playing only a handful of rounds in 2015 and just few of them in the 60s. After suffering through a career-worst 85 on the third day and finishing last in the tournament, even the most diehard Woods supporters can no longer justify backing their man – odds on Woods to recover and win the U.S. Open have dropped to 51.00 at bookmaker bet365.
【bet365: 2015 US Open Golf Tournament Winner Outright Odds】
※ Current Odds Date & Time: June 15, 3:00 a.m. (GMT)
Another bettor darling, Phil Mickelson, is dealing with a similar winless drought as his long-time rival, Woods. Mickelson has at least been able to turn in an occasionally impressive round and he continues to make encouraging statements to the press. But it is getting harder and harder for bettors to dismiss weekend rounds like 78 and 75 that Lefty posted in the Memorial. There is enough belief in Mickelson’s breaking through to win his first United States Open after six runner-up finishes that he remains in the second tier of contenders at 21.00.
It is not just the old guard that is bedeviling the handicappers in the days leading up to the United States Open. Rickie Fowler supposedly stepped up to fulfill his promise with an unworldly finish in The Players Championship at Ponte Verde in May. But in his only appearance since then, he missed the cut in the Memorial and did not even get the chance to post ugly weekend numbers like Woods and Mickelson. Oddsmakers have him sitting right behind Mickelson at 23.00.
Dustin Johnson is another young star who was supposed to make the leap forward after capturing the World Golf Championships-Cadillac Championship at Doral in March. He also has not won again since, displaying a maddening tendency to race up the leaderboard on Saturdays only to fall back with uninspiring final rounds. Sportsbook Bovada sees the long-balling Johnson as the third favorite at 17.00.
Muddying the betting picture for the 2015 U.S. Open even further is the venue. The United States Golf Association (USGA) has broken with tradition in selecting the Chambers Bay Golf Course outside of Tacoma. Rather than the typical old-fashioned track dripping with history, Chambers Bay opened only in 2009. The layout designed by Robert Trent Jones, Jr. is so new that few players had ever heard of it and fewer have played it.
The links-style course boasts only one tree, which is behind the 15th green and not in play, and encompassing so many pitches and rolls, the USGA is making noise about setting the tee boxes on slopes, something unheard of in championship golf. Early reports from professionals who have played a practice round at Chambers Bay range from Ian Poulter’s tweet that the course is a “complete farce” to more guarded remarks.
Most players agree that the USGA can turn the course into an amusement ride if they so wish. There is talk of changing pars on the same hole from one day to the next because of the enormous greens and optional routes of play. Depending on the tee box used, the par-three 9th hole can play uphill one day and downhill the next. The 16th hole can be a drivable 287-yard par four into a sliver of green or a two-shot 423 yards into the fat of the green.
Poulter’s final evaluation is not much comfort to bettors hoping to find form in their pre-championship handicapping: “I guess someone has to win.”
