In the United States the arrival of American football tends to shove most other sports to the sidelines. In a battle for relevance, sports that stage year-long slogs to a championship have instituted playoff systems to rejuvenate interest, most notably golf and NASCAR. On the plus side, this gives bettors more opportunities for play and fans the chance to see stars gathered in limited-field events.
On the down side, these contrived playoff formulas can look convoluted and make it difficult to know exactly what a punter is wagering on. The Chase for the Sprint Cup devised by NASCAR goes to the starting line for the third year in 2016 and it is worth reviewing how this knockout formula plays out over the course of 10 weeks and 10 races.
Sixteen drivers qualify with winners of any race during the racing season automatically getting in. This year there were thirteen race winners and the last three spots in the Chase were determined by point totals won during 2016. The elite field then competes in four rounds of competition. Each of the first three rounds consist of three races and each round the four lowest point scorers are eliminated. So Round 2 has 12 drivers, Round 3 has eight drivers and Round 4 has four competitors for the championship race.
【2016 NASCAR Sprint Championship Outright Winner Odds】
※ Current Odds Date & Time: September 20, 11:00 p.m. (GMT)
What does this mean to handicappers? There are only two years of data to scrutinize but thus far in 2014 and 2015 there have been big names making early returns to the garage and unexpected advances deep into the knockout rounds. What has happened, however, is that the ultimate winners – Kevin Harvick in 2014 and Kyle Busch in 2015 – were on every punter’s short list of favorites.
Harvick and Busch have been jockeying all season as the 2016 favorite in futures betting for the Chase. As defending champion last year Harvick, now in his 40s, led the point standings most of the season before being tripped up in the knockout format and finishing second to Busch. Harvick has been a steady performer this year leading the circuit in Top-5 finishes, Top-10 finishes and overall average finish. He also snared wins at Bristol and Phoenix, where he has won eight times in his career. It is almost the same resume he carried into the playoffs in 2015.
In the Chase, Harvick will be dealing with more than Kyle Busch. Busch leads a team welded from Joe Gibbs Racing and Furniture Racing that has forged a racing juggernaut on the track this year for Toyota. Every driver on the roster – Busch, Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth and Martin Truex, Jr. – has taken the checkered flag at least twice in 2016. Not only did the Toyota-fueled team win 50% of all NASCAR events but its cars led 56% off all laps. Included in the haul for Toyota has been the trophies for all four of the biggest races on the NASCAR calendar.
For punters who want a more confident selection, Truex is in a group of strong contenders at +600 courtesy of bookie Marathonbet. The 36-year old from New Jersey has shown a tendency for leading races for long stretches before falling victim to adversity. He lost to Hamlin this year in the closest Daytona 500 of all-time and surrendered leads in Texas and Kansas after 141 and 172 laps, respectively. At Charlotte Motor Speedway in the Coca-Cola 600, Truex led for a record 588 miles – including the last one. He won again at Darlington in September and backed that victory up by winning the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400 at Chicagoland Speedway to kickoff the Chase for the Sprint Cup and earn an automatic entry into Round 2.
Toyota driver Hamlin is also a popular choice to emerge from the Chase knockout system. He scored his biggest win ever in this year’s Daytona 500 and has parlayed that finish into his best year with nine consecutive Top 10 finishes highlighted by two more wins in the Cheez-It 355 At The Glen and the Federated Auto Parts 400.
Veteran Brad Keselowski is another in the group at +600. Keselowski, who won the Sprint Cup Championship in 2012 before the format change, heads the table in racing points but has does it on consistency rather than flash. He has the second-most Top 5 finishes behind Harvick. Last year he scored only one win to go along with five second place finishes but he has driven into the winner’s circle four times this season.
The knockout formula has not been kind to Jimmie Johnson who is a six-time champion in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series including an unprecedented five in a row between 2006 and 2010. A seventh crown would elevate Johnson alongside racing legends Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt as the only drivers with seven championships. He remains among the favorites and has won twice this season. At Chicagoland he led 118 laps before finishing 12th in the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400 as he fights to banish the memories of early elimination in 2014 and 2015.
The most precocious contender with eyes to disrupt the Toyota juggernaut is 26-year old Joey Logano who became the second-youngest winner of the Daytona 500 in 2015. Logano’s 2016 season got off to a slow start but he powered to the win in the Firekeepers Casino 400 in June. He has been a familiar pole winner and took a second place behind Truex at Chicagoland. The Chase now moves to New Hampshire Motor Speedway where Logano became the youngest winner in Sprint Cup Series history at the age of 19. The driver he supplanted as youngest winner was Kyle Busch and Logano would like nothing better than to take over for Busch as Sprint Car champion.
