Three is more than two. That is the basic accounting handicappers of the 2016 NBA Finals will most need to know as the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers prepare to clash in a rematch of the 2015 Finals. So far in this playoff season both teams have been shooting – and converting – three point shots at previously unheard of rates. The Cavaliers set records for most three-pointers in a playoff game in their Eastern Conference finals against the Toronto Raptors and the Warriors set records for the most three-point scoring in a playoff series as they outlasted the Oklahoma City Thunder in seven games in the Western Conference finals. Guards Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry both broke the previous mark for three-pointers converted in a playoff series.
Both the Warriors and Cavaliers have been expected to suit up for this showdown all season long. While many considered this match-up inevitable, their paths to the Finals have seldom been parallel. The Warriors set the all-time mark for regular season NBA wins with 73 and have been inspiring debate all year if they should be considered the finest professional basketball team of all time. For their part, the Cavaliers fired coach David Blatt at mid-season – even as he was guiding an injury-depleted team to a 30-11 start, the best winning percentage an NBA coach ever had while being handed his pink slip.
But while the Warriors shone in the regular season, it has been the Cavaliers that have been the more impressive squad in the post-season. The Cavs swept easily through their first two playoff series and although they stumbled twice against the Raptors, LeBron James and crew still dismissed Toronto easily in six games. The margins of victory in the Cavaliers four wins in the Eastern Conference Finals were 31, 19, 38, and 26 points.
Meanwhile the defending champion Warriors have not looked exactly like the juggernaut the team has become in the past twelve months in these playoffs. There have been losses at home (after going 39-2 on the friendly hardwood of Oracle Arena in the regular season) and the only way Golden State made it to the Finals was to become only the 10th team in NBA history to return from the abyss of a 3-1 series deficit. Of the previous 232 playoff teams to hold a 3-1 series lead like Oklahoma City possessed over the Warriors, 223 had won. No wonder James has expressed incredulity that the Warriors have been installed as favourites heading into the Finals by outfits like bookmaker Bovada that lists Golden State at -200.
【2015-16 NBA Finals Outright Winner Odds】
※ Current Odds Date & Time: June 2, 1:00 a.m. (GMT)
What factors are being batted about in evaluating the two teams? Start with rest. By dint of its efficient work in winning playoff games, the Cavaliers have plenty of it. Not only has Golden State had to grind through its playoff run but the Warriors played full bore all the way to the bell in the regular season in chasing the wins record. In the Finals they will surpass 100 games for the season – all without a breather. For those punters making the case that the Warriors are wearing down, they need look no further than the unexpected playoff struggles thus far.
Then there is health, often the by-product of rest. In last year’s Finals, James was left virtually without help to battle the Warriors who were still fit and spry. This year the Cavaliers are at full strength and it is Golden State that is dinged up. Curry, the first player ever to be voted league MVP unanimously, has missed playoff games and battled through leg injuries. He gets only two days off before the Finals heat up again.
The Warriors also continue to be dogged by whispers about strength of schedule. Last year was a charmed playoff run that featured facing teams that either advanced by upset or were severely compromised by injury, as the Cavs were at the end. It was a march to the NBA championship with nary a test. The first time in the past two years Golden State was forced to contend with an elite team at full strength in a playoff series – the Thunder – it required an historic comeback after many in-game double-digit deficits.
On the other hand, however, the Cavaliers never faced much competition in the woeful Eastern Conference. Cleveland will scarcely be battle-hardened when they tip-off against the defending champions who will hold home court advantage in the best-of-seven series.
These off-the-court variables are necessary to parse because the on-court talent is so similar. Curry, who leads the Warriors, is basketball’s best shooter. On the opposing bench James is basketball’s best player. Their running mates are All-Stars as well. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green have blossomed for the Warriors and on the Cleveland side Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love give James viable scoring options. The Warriors are lauded as playing “pure” team basketball but the team that often looks for its main scorer, Curry, to rescue the team late. Since James is the most dominant player of his generation, the Cavaliers are often portrayed as being a team whose success rests heavily on his shoulders. But in fact James’ drive-and-dish playing style often creates scoring chances for those around him in key moments.
If the bevy of stars all manage to neutralize each other it will be good news for the Warriors who enjoy a deeper supporting cast. That has proven the case in recent head-to-head match-ups between the Cleveland and Golden State. The Warriors have won the last five games, including three in the 2015 playoffs and two regular season tilts this year, by an average of 16.4 points. And online bookie Bovada has installed Golden State as a comfortable six-point favourite in the series opener.
【2015-16 NBA Finals Game #1 Winner Odds】
※ Current Odds Date & Time: June 2, 1:00 a.m. (GMT)
But really, of all the numbers that will bandied about in dissecting the NBA Finals, it will come down to just the number 3. Both teams will be launching bombs and both sides know what will be coming. It is no coincidence that Warriors coach Steve Kerr has the highest career shooting percentage in NBA history with players with more than 2,000 shots. In the final two games against the Thunder, the Warriors scored 84 more points from behind the three-point line than Oklahoma City. The Cavaliers won’t be spotting Golden State more than 40 points per game from long distance but can they make enough of their own to keep up?
