The final grand slam event of the year begins on the 29th of August, and we are in for some jam-packed matches for the next couple of weeks. Novak Djokovic is out of the race due to his vaccination status as America denied his entry into the country, which just leaves Rafael Nadal from the big three to contend for the title.
Of course the road to the title won’t be easy for Nadal with the defending champion Daniil Medvedev returning, and we cannot forget the ultimate challengers in Carlos Alcaraz and Stefanos Tsitsipas, who are aiming to win their first grand slam.
Medvedev, who leads the first quarter of the draw, has had a tough year since his triumph at Flushing Meadows last year. He hasn’t won many titles since then and has been facing problems with mental toughness in the third set. While he is the fan favorite and undoubtedly a great player, it is hard to put some confidence in him with seven matches between him and the title awaiting. As a result, the road to the title may not be as easy as it may appear.
He opens his campaign against the 110th-ranked Stefan Kozlov, which should be an easy win for him, but a potential Round of 16 match against Nick Kyrgios lies ahead. The Aussie has been in great form of late, and not only does he have a good chance of reaching the fourth round, but he would be looking to do what he couldn’t do at Wimbledon – win the title. Medvedev might not make it easy for him, considering he didn’t even get to play the grass-court grand slam event, and although Kyrgios managed to beat Medvedev a few weeks ago, Medvedev will be looking for payback and should be able to come out on top.
We also have the likes of Felix Auger-Aliassime, Alex de Minaur, Karen Khachanov, and Dominic Thiem in the first quarter who are all capable of reaching the second week. Auger-Aliassime and Carreno-Busta have the best chances of making it to the fourth round where they might face each other. If that scenario plays out, expect the Canadian to win the match given his amazing performances this season and reach his second Grand Slam quarter-final of 2022.
※ Current Odds Date & Time: August 27th, 07:30 p.m. (GMT)
Daniil Medvedev returns to the US Open as the betting favorite at 3.60 and is closely followed by Rafael Nadal, who is priced at 5.00 with online bookie Bwin. However, with Medvedev’s recent performances, he would need to step up his performance if he wants to take the title.
Rafael Nadal is a heavy contender for the title, and he would want to add the 23rd grand slam title to his name. Alcaraz follows his idol at 6.50, but the young Spaniard hasn’t had much success in the warm-up tournaments to the US Open and would need to improve his game to have a shot at the title. Kyrgios is priced at 9.00 for the right reasons and he might be the underdog of the tournament who can finally win his maiden Grand Slam title after an unsuccessful attempt at Wimbledon. Kyrgios is followed by Tsitsipas at 13.00 and Sinner at 17.00.
The second quarter of the draw might be the toughest as we have several contenders capable of reaching the quarter-finals. Tsitsipas has been slotted here but he’s not been showing great form of late with inconsistencies all around. He did manage to beat Medvedev at Cincinnati but lost to Borna Coric in the finals of that tourney.
After making it to the Grand Slam final at Melbourne, he couldn’t make it past the Round of 16 in the next two and he doesn’t hold a good record at Flushing Meadows either as he has had back-to-back third-round exits in the last two years. He will start his campaign against a qualifier and should have little trouble reaching the third round, but even if he manages to make it to the fourth round, more likely than not Matteo Berrettini awaits. Given his performance of late, the Italian might be able to beat the fourth seed if the two face-off against one another.
Other names to look out for in the bracket would be Casper Ruud and Taylor Fritz, who have given us some impressive performances during this hard-court season. Of course, Andy Murray shouldn’t be written off as he is very much capable of being a worthy contender.
With Casper Ruud and Taylor Fritz able to reach the fourth round, this is where they might face each other. If that is the case, it will be a tightly contested match, and although they are both tough players, we have to give the edge to Casper Ruud who has a higher chance of making it to the quarter-finals and is more capable of beating the likes of a Berrettini or Tsitsipas in the quarter-finals.
Carlos Alcaraz leads the third quarter of the draw and has shown us that he is a force to be reckoned with. He made it to the quarter-finals in the 2021 edition of the US Open and has since improved his form a lot. His two Master 1000 wins in 2022 are a testament to that fact. Alcaraz should have little to no trouble reaching the third round, where he might face Borna Coric.
The Cincinnati tournament winner has been impressive on the court of late, but the Spaniard just might be able to edge out Coric to reach the fourth round where a match against Marin Cilic or Dan Evans may be in the cards. However, regardless of the opponent, Alcaraz should be able to beat either of them and set a quarter-final showdown potentially against Jannik Sinner.
Jannik Sinner and Hubert Hurkacz lead the other side of the third quarter and will be contending with the likes of Grigor Dimitrov, Lorenzo Musetti, and David Goffin to make it to the fourth round. Although we can have some interesting match-ups in this quarter, it will most likely be a showdown between Sinner and Hurkacz in the Round of 16 with the victor advancing to face Alcaraz in the quarter-finals if all goes according to plan.
In the last quarter, we have Rafael Nadal leading the bottom half of the draw. After pulling out of the Wimbledon semi-finals, he will be looking to claim the title in the Djokovic-free event. Although, we don’t want to jinx anything, what we are seeing here is a repeat of 2017.
Nadal lost the opening round to Coric in Cincinnati, and he wasn’t looking great during the warm-ups to the US Open in 2017. Everyone had their reservations, but Nadal did what he does best – he proved everyone wrong and went on to add another grand slam title to his name. Nadal hasn’t competed in the US Open after claiming the trophy in 2019, and he will open his campaign this year against wild card entrant Rinky Hijikata. He shouldn’t face any problems in the early rounds and although there is a tiny threat in a possible match-up against Francis Tiafoe in the fourth round, the Spaniard should be able to come out on top to set a quarter-final showdown most likely against Cameron Norrie or Andrey Rublev if he can manage his form and reduce his unforced errors.
Cameron Norrie, Andrey Rublev, John Isner, and Denis Shapovalov lead the other half of the fourth quarter. Cameron Norrie might face early threats against John Isner and Holger Rune and although it might be a tough road for Norrie, he should be able to reach the fourth round. We might see a third-round showdown between Andrey Rublev and Denis Shapovalov. If this were to evolve, expect the Russian to come out on top to set a Round of 16 clash against Norrie. There is no doubt that it will be a close match, but as of this moment, we have to give the edge to Cameron Norrie.
There we have it – two weeks of some amazing tennis before we head to the Laver Cup in September. Will we see a showdown between Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev in the final? If the tournament plays out this way, the Spaniard should be able to edge out Medvedev to extend his lead in the Grand Slam title race. Had he not pulled out due to an injury at Wimbledon, he might have had a shot at the calendar-year Grand Slam, an achievement that has not been repeated since Rod Laver won all four slams in 1969. With that said, three out of four is not bad.
The main draw matches will take place from the 29th of August 2022 to the 11th September of 2022 with the winner taking home $2.6 million and 1000 ranking points.
Projected Semi-finals:
Rafael Nadal vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Daniil Medvedev vs. Casper Ruud
Projected Finals:
Rafael Nadal vs. Daniil Medvedev
Projected Winner:
Rafael Nadal
Where to watch?
UK: Amazon Prime Video
USA: Tennis Channel
India: Discovery
Canada: TSN
You can also watch the live coverage of every match on Tennis TV.